Possibly, a snap election is the best way out of this political impasse

Political tensions have been rising for months and the next election could be fought more on communal/religious lines rather than on political and governance issues. This could be dangerous for the country.

V Thomas

The best way to clear the political mess is by having  a snap election to get a fresh mandate from the people. An interim, minority or unity government, despite looking attractive, will show signs of weakness as the days go by as some of the political parties are radically  opposed to one another. BN and Pas want a snap poll to solve the political conundrum but PH is totally opposed to this idea. The Yang DiPertuan Agong has interviewed the 221 MPs to know their views. If the result turns out to be positive in resolving the crisis then the King will have set a  political precedent – a convention – which in the future can be followed during a similar episode in Malaysia and elsewhere. This could enhance the Monarch’s role.

There are various reasons  for some parties to avert a snap election right now. Any election is dicey especially after the present collapse of the government. BN and Pas could possibly emerge stronger, despite the corruption cases against the UMNO  leaders, if one looks at the past 20 months, when they have been able to marshal support for various racial and religious issues and others like ICERD . The Malay community may want to shore up its strength after losing power in the last election.

For PH it could mean losing a big chunk of the votes. There will be no 1MDB to harp on like before as it has become a  stale issue. What will be more important will be PH’s records for the last 20 months, which is at best more of a disappointment rather than encouragement. The PH has backtracked on numerous issues and reforms . The euphoria of May 9, 2018  has been replaced by U-turns on promises of legislative reforms such as on SOSMA, IPCMC, local government elections and others. Political tensions have been rising for months and the next election could be fought more on communal/religious lines rather than on political and governance issues. This could be dangerous for the country.

The release of the 12 Indians purportedly for  supporting the LTTE has taken the lid off Indian anger and the Indian community’s support will be crucial for both PH and BN. The Chinese community too has shown its displeasure with the PH in the Tanjung Piai by-election, and also because of the DAP’s handling of the TAR college issue and no headway has been made over the UEC recognition by the government.

The East Malaysian political parties are also fed up as the MA 1963 failed to make legislative breakthrough, which would have given the two states equal partnership status with West Malaysia, due to a lack of a two thirds majority in Parliament, and the oil royalty issues have not been amicably or fully settled. The Sarawakians and Sabahans will also note that under the previous BN  government there were major infrastructure and development plans. As usual they will find themselves thrust into the role as kingmakers in choosing between the two centres of power in the next election, but will find it hard to wrest anything substantial from the West Malaysian government.

The biggest problem for the BN/Pas coalition will be choosing a good  leader. Possibly the leader will be one from UMNO and the deputy from Pas, which could be a good arrangement. BN and Pas will be coming as one as never before for the next election, and it could prove to be a powerful combination that could be threat to Malay-based PH parties such as Keadilan, Bersatu and Amanah.

Socio-economic factors will also weigh in politically in the election. The cost of living, unemployment, the reduction in  government hand-outs such as BSH, the present economic slowdown due to the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 epidemic have affected the country much. It is for fear of these reasons that PH wants to avoid a snap election. Prime Minister Mahathir’s record for the last 20 months has dented his image and he is now a spent force. His support for any party is not going to count much. Anwar Ibrahim’s image is also affected by this crisis and he will not be a big vote-getter as before as enthusiasm towards him has ebbed. The PH cannot be making the same promises  as before and expect the people to support their manifesto. Azmin Ali and Zuraida Kamaruddin and the others who left PKR may have to join Bersatu as there is no better choice for them than from fading away. They do not stand any chance if they form a party of their own especially after the present crisis.

Whether the 18-21 group that number in the millions will be able to vote is not known. This group, unpredictable at best, is more focused on employment, PTPTN loans, education, affordable housing and other issues affecting the young.

Another important aspect of any snap election is that it may result in a hung parliament, a situation no better than the present. Both sides will then have to depend on the smaller parties – the tyranny of the minority so to speak. Let us hope that the politicians and parties will put the interests of the people as their priority in the formation of a stable and progressive government.

Thank you