Pakatan Harapan misread and underestimated Mahathir

The ‘deathblow’ came when Muafakat Nasional, which had earlier agreed to support Mahathir, withdrew that support and backed Muhyiddin instead. Umno and PAS had extended Mahathir a talian hayat (lifeline) when it appeared he was drowning. But when Mahathir refused to dump DAP, Umno and PAS dumped him and Muhyiddin walked in as prime minister. And without the support of Umno and PAS, Mahathir really had no choice in the matter.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Have you ever read the story about the scorpion and the frog?

Royal coup. Palace-backed coup. Backdoor government. Illegal government. Unconstitutional government. Power grab. Ketuanan Melayu government. Umno racist and PAS extremist government.

Yes, over the last two weeks you have probably read all those labels in the media (mainstream, foreign, as well as social media). Those are the labels they use to describe the Perikatan Nasional government.

I do not wish to debate whether those labels are politically correct or not. That would be like debating whether the Japanese invaded Malaya in 1941 to free the country from western imperialism or to become the new colonial masters of an Asian empire.

All those fancy names and labels, which the anti-Perikatan Nasional media is using, is merely a symptom of a denial syndrome. By calling Perikatan Nasional all sorts of names, it makes them feel good about themselves.

The beginning of the end for Pakatan Harapan started when Muafakat Nasional was launched

It is like Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad calling Najib Tun Razak a thief, robber, perompak, lanun, penyangak, kleptocrat, and so on. By vilifying Najib, Mahathir is able to feel good about himself. It is actually a sign of a mental disorder. And Mahathir argues that he is clean and not corrupt because he has never been arrested, charged and convicted for stealing any money.

That is like saying Adolf Hitler never killed any Jews because he was never arrested, charged and convicted for killing Jews. Does that make Hitler the Nelson Mandela or Mahatma Gandhi of Nazi Germany? But then that is how Mahathir normally argues his case, by using warped logic.

The denial syndrome I mentioned relates to Pakatan Harapan’s flirtation with Mahathir. Have you ever heard the story of the scorpion and the frog? Well, in this case Mahathir is the scorpion and Pakatan Harapan is the frog. Mahathir needs to cross to the other side while Pakatan Harapan helps him cross. And guess what the scorpion did to the frog. And can the scorpion help itself when it is in its DNA to sting even those who help it?

The Kongres Maruah Melayu was the writing on the wall which Pakatan Harapan ignored

And that is what Pakatan Harapan rasa malu besar about. They carried the scorpion on their back when it was desperate to cross to the other side and then got stung. They thought the scorpion would not sting them because then they would both die. But the scorpion did sting them and they both did die in the process. But Pakatan Harapan is too ashamed to admit this, so they start saying nasty things about Perikatan Nasional as if Pakatan Harapan is the victim while Perikatan Nasional is the perpetrator.

The long and short of it is Pakatan Harapan thought they could use Mahathir to oust Umno and Barisan Nasional. They played on Mahathir’s hatred for Najib Tun Razak and if they could help Mahathir oust Najib then Umno and Barisan Nasional would fall and Pakatan Harapan could take over as the new government. Mahathir may be a dangerous scorpion, but then he is a scorpion that needs help to cross to the other side, and Pakatan Harapan would help him do that. But then they failed to understand that the scorpion can never change its DNA even if it means its actions would be suicide.

The game-plan was for PPBM to take over from Umno while Parti Amanah would take over from PAS. That fit DAP’s game-plan perfectly, so they sponsored and financed the creation of Parti Amanah, while Mahathir created his Umno Baru, which he called Pribumi or Bersatu (PPBM).

They say a picture is worth a thousand words and Anwar’s absence at the Kongres Maruah Melayu, and Azmin’s presence, told the story

In the May 2018 general election or GE14, Umno garnered 21.1% of the popular votes. PAS got 16.64% of the votes. The total number of seats that Umno and PAS won, combined, were 72 out of 222, or 32.43% of the seats.

PPBM, however, garnered only 5.95% of the votes while Amanah got 5.43% of the votes. The total number of seats they won, combined, were only 24 out of the 222 parliament seats, or 10.81% of the seats. In short, PPBM and Amanah failed to replace Umno and PAS.

PKR’s share of the popular votes, at 16.94%, were almost the same as PAS. However, while PAS won only 18 seats, PKR won 47 seats. But then that is democracy. While PAS and PKR won almost the same number of popular votes, 16.64% versus 16.94%, when it came to seats it was 18 for PAS versus 47 for PKR.

Now, what was that again about Barisan Nasional being an illegitimate government in 2013 because it won more than 50% of the seats against the backdrop of less that 50% of the votes? Yes, if you listen to Pakatan Harapan’s logic you will become stupid. PKR won 47 seats with the same number of votes as PAS (which won 18 seats) while DAP garnered only 18.92% of the votes but won 42 seats. How do you explain that?

Pakatan Harapan is very good at playing this game of perception, which Umno and Barisan Nasional are not good at. They can dictate the narrative any way they want and Malaysians will believe it. Then they will backpaddle and do a U-turn and argue the opposite and still Malaysians will believe them.

Is it because Pakatan Harapan is clever or is it because Malaysians are stupid?

Pakatan Harapan believed until the very end that Mahathir will make Anwar the PM8

Now, instead of running the country, Pakatan Harapan spent the most of the last 21 months trying to force Mahathir to resign and hand power to Anwar. They kept talking about the promise, the written agreement, the covenant, etc. They were still in denial and refused to accept the fact that Mahathir was never going to hand power to Anwar in a million years. And if you continue to pester Mahathir, he was going to do what the scorpion did to the frog.

The DAP dominated Pakatan Harapan can still control the situation as long as the Malays were divided into five (and the non-Malays were united under DAP). But when Umno and PAS united under Muafakat Nasional on 14th September 2019, the entire political landscape changed, and that required a different and new game-plan.

Pakatan Harapan, however, continued living in denial, as usual. But Mahathir saw that the situation had changed, so you need to change direction in this changing situation. Mahathir quickly responded to this rapidly changing situation by organising the Kongres Maruah Melayu three weeks later on 6th October 2019.

DAP believed that Mahathir was their Ali Baba

But still Pakatan Harapan was in slumber. They did not see the clear and present danger even though the writing was already on the wall. Mahathir was moving towards a new Malay alliance and Perikatan Nasional was a foregone conclusion.

On 24th February 2020, Pakatan Harapan played its last card. No longer were they going to agree to Mahathir handing over power in May or after APEC. Mahathir has to go now and Anwar will take over immediately.

What Mahathir did next was unexpected and it took Pakatan Harapan completely by surprise. Mahathir resigned as Prime Minister and took his party out of the coalition. No one saw that coming. It was the scorpion stinging the frog midway across the river, resulting in the government collapsing.

Now, it has to be remembered that Umno and PAS, or Muafakat Nasional, had nothing to do with this. It was an internal matter that did not involve outsiders. Even Umno and PAS had not expected Mahathir to resign and pull PPBM out of Pakatan Harapan.

This disgusting scene made Umno and PAS unite under Muafakat Nasional

Mahathir then tried to come back as Prime Minister through the backdoor. Yes, Mahathir was no longer the prime minister and the Pakatan Harapan government no longer existed. The government had collapsed. But Mahathir got himself appointed as the interim prime minister. Now that is what we call a backdoor prime minister.

Mahathir then tried to form a backdoor government. Basically, he would be a prime minister without a party and he would appoint his hand-picked cabinet representing individuals and not from any party.

In essence, Mahathir would install the first dictatorship in Malaysia.

But Seri Paduka Baginda Yang Di-Pertuan Agong did not agree to a dictatorship and His Majesty brought the matter to the Conference of Rulers. It was agreed that Muhyiddin Yassin would be appointed the prime minister instead since he appeared to have the majority support. So, Muhyiddin can be made the prime minister but he will need to get a vote of confidence passed by parliament to stay in office.

The ‘deathblow’ came when Muafakat Nasional, which had earlier agreed to support Mahathir, withdrew that support and backed Muhyiddin instead. Umno and PAS had extended Mahathir a talian hayat (lifeline) when it appeared he was drowning. But when Mahathir refused to dump DAP, Umno and PAS dumped him and Muhyiddin walked in as prime minister. And without the support of Umno and PAS, Mahathir really had no choice in the matter.

Will Muhyiddin survive beyond May 2020?

It was also agreed that parliament will convene on 18th May 2020, whereby Muhyiddin can get his vote of confidence. He will need at least 114 MPs to vote for him and the question is: can he get it?

That is a touch-and-go situation and Muhyiddin has about two months to garner his support. He may get it or he may not. And if he does not, then parliament might have to be dissolved to make way for GE15.

So, the drama has not ended yet and the situation is still very fluid. Will Muhyiddin remain the prime minister till GE15? And when will GE15 he held, July 2023 or by July 2020? And to get Mahathir’s support, will Muhyiddin be bringing Mukhriz in to the cabinet to be made a menteri kanan with the status of a de facto deputy prime minister? Yes, the drama has not ended yet and the situation is still very fluid.

Pakatan Harapan dug a hole and buried themselves in that hole. And now they want to accuse others of doing that to them. Pakatan Harapan’s strength is based on Malay disunity. Once Muafakat Nasional was launched, followed by the Kongres Maruah Melayu, Pakatan Harapan should have rung the alarm bells and prepare itself for a crash landing. Pakatan Harapan can never survive if the Malays unite. And the irony of this whole thing is, it was Mahathir who ended up uniting the Malays.