The Perikatan Nasional government can collapse any time and DAP can get back into power

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Bersatu or Malaysian United Indigenous Party won only 13 out of 222 Parliamentary seats in the May 2018 General Election. Mahathir Mohamad, the founder of Bersatu (PPBM), was crowned as the 7th Prime Minister because Wan Azizah Wan Ismail allowed the 93-year-old man to become premier again. That’s because Wan Azizah was a trustworthy and an honest woman.

Wan Azizah was offered the post of Prime Minister from the (previous) Agong (King) Sultan Muhammad V by virtue of her being the president of PKR, the biggest party of Pakatan Harapan coalition which won 50 Parliamentary seats. She turned down the offer because of a promise made during the election campaign that Mahathir would become Prime Minister.

Another promise made was that Mahathir would become an interim prime minister after which Wan Azizah’s husband – Anwar Ibrahim – would take over. But unlike Wan Azizah, Mr. Mahathir was not an honourable man. In fact, the same man who constantly condemns the Malay community as lazy and untrustworthy has turned out to be the most untrustworthy Malay leader himself.

Coming from the horse’s mouth, Mahathir finally admitted that he had never meant to keep his promise to hand over the premiership to Anwar. The latest coup has brought the Malay politics to a new low pathetic level. The greed and lust for power has reached a stage where there’s no red line that cannot be crossed, including throwing one’s principle and dignity out of the windows.

Mahathir masterminded Pakatan Harapan’s collapse

Mahathir can argue until the cows come home that he was not involved in the conspiracy that toppled the Pakatan Harapan government. He can even point his fingers at his protégé-turned-nemesis former PM Najib Razak. But all the fingerprints can be traced back to him. His latest interview with the Nikkei Asian Review is yet another piece of evidence that he was indeed the mastermind.

The former premier said he would make a political comeback to lead the country – again – if there are wrongdoings in the administration of current PM Muhyiddin Yassin. His remarks suggested that instead of snatching back his throne from the man who had stolen it through a backdoor government, Mahathir is now more than happy to let it go and enters semi-retirement.

Exactly how could a vengeful Mahathir be so forgiving if indeed he had genuinely been robbed and betrayed? His statement also indicated that he’s now playing the role of a Minister Mentor cum Kingmaker cum Godfather who will determine the fate of Muhyiddin regime, who has yet to receive any recognition from superpowers like the U.S., UK, EU or China.

Mahathir now backs Muhyiddin

Mr. Mahathir initially called Mr. Muhyiddin a traitor. Muhyiddin cried innocence and quickly sent a letter begging for forgiveness. Mahathir then abandoned the much anticipated vote of “no confidence” plan, claiming it will most likely fail. He even said Muhyiddin will survive until the 15th General Election, as if it was his seal of approval. Muhyiddin then publicly asked Mahathir for endorsement.

The simple fact that a sitting prime minister, the most powerful man, had to seek approval from a defeated former premier speaks volumes that Mahathir is unofficially the Godfather of the government. That also means Muhyiddin is merely a proxy of Mahathir. To please the old man, the premier had obediently disqualified all senior UMNO warlords whom Mahathir didn’t like.

However, while former PM Mahathir could bully his way in the previous Pakatan Harapan coalition, PM Muhyiddin cannot do the same in the present Perikatan Nasional coalition. As a starter, the “Malay first” Muhyiddin cannot flash racial and religious cards to rally support for his government. After all, his backdoor government is almost 100% Malay-Muslim government.

Unlike the Chinese-dominated DAP party who has reverted to its previous role as the opposition, Muhyiddin’s biggest ally – UMNO – isn’t a party that the prime minister can bully, let alone be treated like a second-class partner. The power-hungry UMNO has demonstrated well that personal agenda and self-interest were the only reasons they backed Muhyiddin in the first place.

Perikatan Nasional is falling apart

Yes, in just 2 weeks, the freshly half-baked Perikatan Nasional backdoor government is showing signs of falling apart due to ongoing internal power struggle. Unless PM Muhyiddin is willing to create a world record 114 ministries to cater for all the Member of Parliaments who are keeping him in office, the regime will most likely collapse before the Christmas.

After grumbles from warlords Azalina Othman, Bung Moktar, Tajuddin Abdul Rahman and Shahrir Samad, other senior warlords have come out in droves to condemn the unfair allocation of ministries to UMNO. Its vice president Khaled Nordin has declared that the so-called “Malay-only” government has not walked the talk on its promise of integrity.

Khaled rudely lectured PM Muhyiddin that UMNO, armed with 42 (including MCA’s 2 MPs and MIC’s 1 MP) Member of Parliaments, is not subordinate to either Bersatu or the prime minister. In what appears to be a slap in the PM’s face, he warned that without the support from UMNO and Islamist party PAS (18 MPs), Muhyiddin could not have formed a government.

“There are among those (with the government) who are embroiled in disgusting scandals, but are protected and given positions in government,” – criticised Khaled, obviously referring to Azmin Ali’s gay sex video clip. Despite the embarrassing scandal, Muhyiddin’s blue-eyed boy Azmin was given one of four Senior Minister posts and the International Trade and Industry Ministry portfolio.

To add fuel to the fire, not only Muhyiddin’s Bersatu party greedily gobbled 2 of 4 Senior Minister posts, the premier had also announced that while the four senior ministers are all “equal”, Azmin will chair Cabinet meetings whenever he is absent. That message was as good as telling UMNO that scandal-plagued Azmin is the de-facto Deputy PM. It was a huge insult to UMNO.

Umno attacking Muhyiddin regarding his affair with Nika Gee

However, Khaled could be indirectly targeting the prime minister himself. Muhyiddin Yassin allegedly had an extramarital affair with a married woman during his tenure as Johor Menteri Besar. In 2017, UMNO supporter Azwanddin Hamzah submitted a statutory declaration as proof about Muhyiddin’s involvement with Nika Gee Siew Yee, wife of former deputy public prosecutor Stanley Clement Augustin.

The clearest sign that UMNO may pull a stunt similar to the one carried out by Muhyiddin came from none other than former PM Najib. He said there are limitations to UMNO’s support for the new Perikatan Nasional government. In essence, the party would try their best to defend the government until the next 15th General Election, after which all bets are off.

But the burning question is for how long can the blood-thirsty UMNO patiently wait for the next election, which is still 3 years away? If an internal power struggle has already exploded within 14 days since the formation of the new government, can UMNO warlords wait for another 1,000 days? Chances are high that Najib Razak and Zahid Hamidi would prematurely pull out at the slightest sign they would be sent to prison.

Bersatu needs Umno more than Umno needs Bersatu

Like it or not, UMNO has nothing to lose. The corrupt party knew Bersatu needs UMNO more than UMNO needs Bersatu. They wanted a direct control over the government and not to be controlled. That’s why they have been so daring at pushing their luck. If PM Muhyiddin cannot fulfil their wishes, they will find ways to force a snap election with the belief they would win a landslide victory.

Interestingly, Mr. Mahathir said 3 days ago that he believes the Chinese and Indian communities will not vote for the Perikatan Nasional government in the next general election due to the “almost Malay-centric” composition of its Cabinet. He appeared to be sending a message to PM Muhyiddin that the minorities cannot be ignored as they could be a valuable asset.

The former PM also suddenly praised former ally DAP, saying that all the negative perceptions were manufactured to put the party and Malays at loggerheads. He said that DAP has toned down their policies to becoming more Malay-friendly. Where was the old man when DAP needed him the most, thanks to daily bashing by the UMNO-Malays and PAS-Malays?

Mahathir praises DAP

Did anyone notice that DAP has been extraordinarily quiet after the collapse of Pakatan Harapan government? It could be that they’re still licking their wounds. But it could also mean something is brewing behind the scene. In case UMNO suddenly quits the coalition due to a breakdown in the power sharing formula, Muhyiddin’s backdoor government will definitely collapse.

Should Muhyiddin then resign and risk going to a nationwide election, an option which will send his party Bersatu to oblivion? The PM has already said publicly that he does not prefer a snap election for obvious reason. His tiny party of 30 MPs was made up of 11 defectors from former ally PKR and Bersatu’s 19 MPs. Even then, 13 out of his own pool of 19 MPs were former UMNO MPs who jumped ship.

In other words, out of the original 13 Bersatu MPs who won the 14th General Election in 2018, Muhyiddin became a PM with merely 6 Bersatu MPs (another 6 MPs were with Mahathir while 1 Parliamentary seat was lost in the Tanjung Piai election). That probably explains why Mahathir mentored Muhyiddin that he has to start wooing the minorities Chinese and Indian voters.

That also explains why Mahathir sang songs of praise to DAP. His own 6 MPs together with Sabah-based Warisan’s 9 MPs and DAP’s 42 MPs would be sufficient to offset a sudden exit of UMNO MPs. Even then, UMNO MPs who have been made ministers and deputy ministers might disobey an order to quit en bloc. DAP, Mahathir hopes, could serve as a backup or reserve player.

Mahathir playing both sides and is hedging his bets

You don’t need a rocket scientist to see how Mahathir is hedging his bet – putting his foot on two boats. He hopes Bersatu party could grow to become a dominant Malay party using Muhyiddin’s “Malay first” image, while at the same time leverages on DAP as the fallback plan. Mahathir believes he’s the kingmaker, who could swing his influence to whichever side he desires.

Mahathir was betting that DAP’s choice would be obvious if the party is made to choose between Muhyiddin’s Bersatu and the racist UMNO and extremist PAS  Last week, it was revealed that DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng was willing to surrender his finance minister post just to make the Malays happy. That could be used as justification to work again with DAP.