Is an Umno-PPBM merger on the cards?

So, expect resistance from the Umno grassroots. Unless Umno is seen as the big brother to PPBM, the Umno leadership may face a problem trying to get the grassroots to endorse the marriage between Umno and PPBM. And this may result in the grassroots clamouring for Najib to return and take control of the party. Interesting, is it not? The so-called Umno-PPBM merger may actually trigger Najib’s return.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

“Tun Mahathir tidak boleh dianggap sebagai pembangkang,” Malaysia Gazette quoted lawyer Mohamed Haniff Khatri Abdulla as saying.

“Walau apa sekalipun, ‘faction’ Parti Bersatu di bawah teraju Tun Mahathir tidak boleh dianggap sebagai tergolong di dalam pembangkang di bawah PH sama sekali,” said Haniff.

Mahathir is neither with the opposition nor with the government, says Haniff Khatri

What Haniff is saying is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is not in the government and yet he is not in the opposition either.

And this was what Mahathir had to say about the matter: “Jadi, pihak yang menentang kerajaan tidak boleh duduk bersama dengan pihak kerajaaan. Jadi, ia harus duduk di kalangan pembangkang bersama-sama dengan PH tetapi bukan sebagai anggota Pakatan.”

This means PPBM is still an opposition party but not part of the opposition coalition called Pakatan Harapan. But is PPBM not also in Perikatan Nasional as part of the ruling coalition?

What confusing message is Mahathir and his lawyer trying to send us? Basically, Mahathir is not in the government and he is also not in the opposition coalition. Then what is he? Is PPBM a neutral or independent opposition party? But PPBM is part of the government and yet does not support the government. And they do not support the opposition as well. So, does Mahathir support BOTH? Or does he oppose both?

Is PPBM with Perikatan Nasional or with Pakatan Harapan?

This is typical Mahathir. It is like when he said he will honour his agreement to stay as prime minister for only two years but he will only retire after the country’s economy has improved, which may take longer than two years. Then he said he will honour his agreement to hand over the post of prime minister to Anwar Ibrahim but the person who takes over must be someone who is suitable for the job, which means it may not be Anwar.

So what game is Mahathir playing here? This “I am neither with the government or with the opposition” is a very neither-here-nor-there statement. Hence what is he then? Or, a more important question would be: where is Mahathir trying to go?

Actually, Mahathir is toying with a few options and one option is to merge Umno and PPBM or Parti Pribumi Bersatu. But when they say “merge” here, what type of merger is it going to be?

Back in 2003, Parti Keadilan Nasional (PKN) allegedly “merged” with Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM). At least that was the impression they tried to give us. But that so-called merger was a hoax. What happened was the PRM people joined PKN and PKN changed its name to PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat).

Syed Husin Ali and the PRM leaders defected to PKR but it was made to look like a PRM-PKN merger

The truth is, the PRM people defected to PKR but it was made to look like a merger

In fact, PRM still exists until today. If PRM had merged with PKN, then the party would no longer exist. But it still exists because PRM did not merge with PKN but the PRM people defected to PKN (and PKN just changed its name to PKR to create the illusion that the two parties had merged).

In the Umno-PPBM “merger” this might be the same case (or at least what Mahathir is planning). Mahathir wants Umno to close down or to be wound up and for the Umno members and leaders to join PPBM (like in the PKR episode back in 2003).

PPBM has a problem with financing. PPBM will need RM2 billion to face GE15 (whenever that may be). And if GE15 is held over the next 12 months, then PPBM is in deep shit. They do not have RM2 billion.

PPBM will need RM2 billion to face GE15 plus it is going to be a three-corner fight if they do not “merge” with Umno

The even bigger worry, however, is that in GE15 PPBM may no longer be part of Perikatan Nasional (Umno and PAS may decide to face GE15 as Muafakat Nasional instead of as Perikatan Nasional). But then, according to Mahathir and Haniff, PPBM is not part of Pakatan Harapan either. So, what is going to happen in GE15? Is it going to be a three-corner contest (Pakatan Harapan versus Muafakat Nasional versus PPBM)?

So PPBM has to decide which coalition they are going to be with in GE15. Will PPBM be part of Pakatan Harapan (like in GE14) or will it still be part of Perikatan Nasional (like now). According to Mahathir, currently PBM is neither government nor opposition.

And that raises the question of where Mahathir will be sitting on 18th May 2020.

However, If Umno and PPBM merge, that will solve the problem. PPBM will be part of Umno, which will be part of Muafakat Nasional, which in turn will be part of Perikatan Nasional. So, in GE15, it will be Perikatan Nasional versus Pakatan Harapan.

PPBM knows that their association with DAP is going to be a problem in GE15 and the Malays are going to punish them for being “Barua Cina”

That will also solve the problem of financing. PPBM will need RM2 billion for GE15. Muafakat Nasional will need RM2.5 billion. The total for both will be RM4.5 billion. But if PPBM is now part of Umno, which is part of Muafakat Nasional, and in turn part of Perikatan Nasional, PPBM’s financial needs will be reduced and can be slotted under Perikatan Nasional.

And, most importantly, there will be no three-corner contests (or PPBM versus Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional).

But Mahathir is a proud person. He does not want to make it appear like Umno “swallowed” PPBM. He wants to make it appear like PPBM “swallowed” Umno. So PPBM must call the shots. PPBM must be the leader while Umno must be the follower. And people like Najib Tun Razak must not be included in the new Umno-PPBM merger. So Umno must first get rid of Najib before the marriage can take place.

And that may be the main obstacle to the so-called Umno-PPBM merger (or PPBM swallowing Umno). Many in Umno will not agree to Najib being sacrificed on the altar. And they will also not agree to Umno playing second fiddle to PPBM. As it is, PPBM is already treating Umno as the “anak tiri”. And many in Umno are very unhappy about it. For PPBM to now swallow Umno and spit Najib out would too many insults to bear in one lifetime.

So, expect resistance from the Umno grassroots. Unless Umno is seen as the big brother to PPBM, the Umno leadership may face a problem trying to get the grassroots to endorse the marriage between Umno and PPBM. And this may result in the grassroots clamouring for Najib to return and take control of the party. Interesting, is it not? The so-called Umno-PPBM merger may actually trigger Najib’s return.