Mahathir’s 18 May bluff à la Anwar’s “16 September”

By Raja Petra Kamarudin Last updated May 7, 2020

By why is Mahathir doing this if he cannot really win the vote? He really has no choice. His son, Mukhriz, is facing the prospect of being ousted as the Kedah Menteri Besar for the second time in his life. There have been cases in Malaysian history where Menteri Besar have been ousted from office, but never, so far, where the same Menteri Besar was ousted twice. So that would be a record of sorts. And Mahathir is creating waves with the hope that he takes the heat off Mukhriz.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

“Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad” — The Masque of Pandora (1875), by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.

While most people are concerned about the possible three million Malaysians who may suffer bankruptcy due to the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic — and the social/security problem posed by the 5-6 million unemployed foreign workers (half who are said to be illegal immigrants) — Pakatan Harapan is attempting to topple the Perikatan Nasional government on 18th May 2020.

And they are going to do this by passing a vote of no confidence (usul undi tidak percaya) against Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin in parliament on 18th May 2020.

READ HERE: 144 daripada 191 ARMADA BERSATU Bahagian sokong Perikatan Nasional

But did Anwar Ibrahim not guarantee Muhyiddin that there is going to be NO vote of no confidence against him on 18th May? So what game is Pakatan Harapan playing here?

Actually, it is NOT Pakatan Harapan that is behind this. It is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The Pakatan Harapan council was not aware of this and Anwar Ibrahim, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Lim Kit Siang, Mat Sabu, and many more, were all caught with their pants down. None of them saw this coming. In short, this is a unilateral action by Mahathir without any consultation with or agreement of Pakatan Harapan.

Parliament Speaker Mohamad Ariff bin Md Yusof is an Anwarist

But Mahathir and his party, Parti Pribumi Bersatu (PPBM), are no longer in Pakatan Harapan. Mahathir is an independent member of parliament while PPBM is an independent opposition party and not a member of either Pakatan Harapan or Perikatan Nasional. So why does he need to discuss this with Pakatan Harapan or any of its leaders?

Mahathir needs to discuss this first because on his own he does not have the numbers. Without Pakatan Harapan, Mahathir would not be able to get even 30 votes.

This, of course, is confusing because PPBM is a member of Perikatan Nasional. So how can the party be an independent opposition party while at the same time be a member of the ruling coalition? Anyway, that is another matter altogether because the way things are going PPBM may not be part of the ruling coalition for long.

Mahathir’s 4th May 2020 letter to the Parliament Speaker talks about a vote of no confidence against PM Muhyiddin

Is the Parliament Speaker rejecting Mahathir’s (4th May) or Shafie’s (1st May) usul undi tidak percaya?

So as not to reveal that there is a serious split in Pakatan Harapan, Anwar Ibrahim, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Lim Kit Siang, Mat Sabu, etc., decided to keep quiet and not say anything about the usul undi tidak percaya against the PM. Instead, they will work through the backdoor (yes, backdoor again) to nip this whole thing in the bud. They will shoot the whole thing down even before it can take off by getting the Speaker to reject the usul.

Pakatan Harapan cannot afford for the usul to be tabled in parliament. If it passes then Mahathir comes back as PM9. If it fails, Muhyiddin stays as PM8. Either way that would mean Anwar is finished. So, this usul must never see the light of day and only the Speaker, who is an Anwarist, can do that.

But Perikatan Nasional has 114 seats in parliament while Pakatan Harapan and “others” have only 108. So why would Mahathir attempt a vote of no confidence against Muhyiddin when he does not have the numbers?

Perikatan Nasional has 114 seats versus only 108 for Pakatan Harapan and “others”

Mahathir hopes this usul undi tidak percaya might give an impression he has the numbers. People might think he has 114 instead of 108 seats and they might be convinced enough to switch sides. All Mahathir needs is four MPs to jump and he would have 112 against Muhyiddin’s 110.

This is basically what Anwar did in 2008 with his “16 September” stunt. It was actually all a ruse and he did not really have 30 Barisan Nasional MPs who were ready to jump, as he claimed. It was like a game of poker where you convince the opponent you have a winning hand by bravely upping the stakes and hoping that the opponent will back down and allow you a walk over.

READ HERE: Bersatu info chief: Dr M, Mukhriz not speaking for party over relationship with Pakatan

Anyway, as what Anwar and Pakatan Harapan want, the Speaker has rejected the usul so it will not be debated on 18th May 2020. Mahathir is still trying to get Pakatan Harapan to support the usul by offering Dr Wan Azizah the post of Deputy Prime Minister with a promise that he will vacate the post of Prime Minister and allow Anwar to take over if he can prove he has the majority support in parliament. (This means if Anwar fails to prove he has majority support then Mahathir will stay on as PM9 at least till GE15).

READ HERE: Mukhriz’s Second Exit From Kedah Imminent As PAS, Umno Wait On Sidelines

By why is Mahathir doing this if he cannot really win the vote? He really has no choice. His son, Mukhriz, is facing the prospect of being ousted as the Kedah Menteri Besar for the second time in his life. There have been cases in Malaysian history where Menteri Besar have been ousted from office, but never, so far, where the same Menteri Besar was ousted twice. So that would be a record of sorts. And Mahathir is creating waves with the hope that he takes the heat off Mukhriz.