PM may survive no-faith vote, but…

“The survival of PN is more critical for PPBM than for BN, PAS or GPS. In the case of BN and PAS, if an election is held today, they will fare better than they did in the 14th general election.”

(FMT) – A political analyst predicts that Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will survive the motion of no confidence currently being pushed by Dr Mahathir Mohamad but won’t remain safe for long.

“For now, Muhyiddin has the numbers to survive,” said Azmi Hassan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.

“But this does not mean the opposition will stop trying to unseat him with a second or even third motion of no confidence.”

He agreed with PKR president Anwar Ibrahim that it was unlikely for the Perikatan Nasional administration to last until the next election.

Anwar recently said the government’s reluctance to conduct Monday’s Dewan Rakyat sitting in the usual manner was a sign that it did not command the confidence of the majority of MPs and was fearful of the vote of no confidence.

Azmi said Anwar’s assessment was correct given PN’s slim majority and fragile alliance.

“At any time, if even one of the Big Three – Barisan Nasional, PAS and GPS – withdraws its support, the government can collapse,” he said.

“The survival of PN is more critical for PPBM than for BN, PAS or GPS. In the case of BN and PAS, if an election is held today, they will fare better than they did in the 14th general election.”

GPS was also in a strong position to retain its seats, he added.

He said the difference in agendas between PPBM and the other parties would likely be the flaw that would tear PN apart.

However, he added, this would not happen in the immediate future because the different parties would want to remain in the government for some time to fortify their influence.

Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya also said the PN government’s position was shaky because of its small majority.

With PPBM, PAS and Umno being natural competitors, he added, there would be trust issues within the coalition.

“Even within Umno, there are those who are known to be supporters of Anwar, like Nazri Aziz and a few others who are silent now.”

He said Muhyiddin should focus on strengthening his support to defeat any motion of no confidence.

“His survival depends on his strategy to weaken Mahathir’s and Anwar’s influence among MPs.”