Does BERSATU want to be the wolf or the fox?
One day, the lion, the wolf and the fox killed a goat and the lion told the fox to divide the meat. The fox divided the meat equally three ways and the lion pounced on the fox and killed it. The lion then asked the wolf to divide the meat and the wolf split it into 80% for the lion and kept only 20%. And they both lived happily ever after.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Most Malays are Muslim first, Malay second and Malaysian third. Many are Malay first, Muslim second and Malaysian third. But a mere handful are Malaysian first and Malay/Muslim second and third.
And this was why in the May 2018 general election Parti Pribumi Bersatu or PPBM garnered only 700,000 of the popular votes against the 4.5 million votes that Umno-PAS (now called Muafakat Nasional) got.
To be fair, quite a bit of the two million votes that PKR garnered also came from Malay voters. The same for the 655,000 votes that Amanah or PAN won. Hence Bersatu, Umno and PAS did not monopolise all the Malay votes. Five parties shared the Malay votes — Umno, PAS, PKR, Bersatu and Amanah (unlike DAP that monopolised 97-98% of the Chinese votes).
Amanah was supposed to replace PAS and Bersatu replace Umno. That did not happen. But then the opposition strategists should have learned from history. Berjasa and Hamim could not replace PAS and neither could Semangat 46 replace Umno. Finally, all three of these pretenders-to-the-throne faded away.
That was why when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad wanted to launch a new party, he first got the Registrar of Societies to close down Umno. Only then did he register a new party that he also called Umno (first it was called Umno Baru and then the “Baru” in the name was dropped).
Mahathir knew it was impossible to replace Umno as long as Umno was still around. He first needed to kill Umno if he wanted to replace Umno. And, even then, the new or replacement party still needed to be called Umno.
Umno is an institution, not a political party
The thing is, Umno is not just a political party. It is an institution. And it is an institution set up to protect Malay interests. And the reason it was set up in the first place was because the institution of the Malay monarchy or Raja-Raja Melayu was under threat due to the creation of the Malayan Union in 1946.
Bersatu, however, was set up merely to bring down Najib Tun Razak. And PKR was set up to make Anwar Ibrahim the prime minister. Amanah was set up to bring down Tok Guru Abdul Hadi Awang. And DAP was set up after Singapore split from Malaysia in 1965 to represent PAP in Malaysia. And, of course, PAS was set up to propagate Islam.
That is why Umno and PAS are timeless whereas the others are seasonal and have a short shelf life. If Anwar does not become prime minister do you still need PKR? If Hadi does not get toppled do you still need Amanah?
When Mahathir was not toppled after two general elections, Semangat 46 closed down because its very existence was to topple Mahathir and “restore” the “old” Umno. Hence, the reason for the creation of Bersatu, which was to topple Najib and Umno, becomes outdated since Najib and Umno were toppled in May 2018.
Semangat 46 failed to replace Umno
PKR was supposed to be a party for “liberal” Malays who do not wish to join or support “extremist” Umno and “liberal” Chinese who do not wish to join or support “extremist” DAP.
But let us be honest. How many percent of Malays and Chinese are really liberal? The word “liberal” is being freely and wrongly used. Most Malays and Chinese are superstitious and traditionalists. Chinese still believe in what they used to believe 5,000 years ago, and will never agree to close down Chinese schools and end Chinese education. Malays still believe God’s right and Sharia laws are higher than human rights, and civil liberties are only for kafir and Yahudi, not for Muslims.
So, there are really no liberal Chinese and liberal Malays. Just lip service, not in practice.
Bersatu has outlived its purpose. Its continued existence depends on where it now wants to position itself. And this positioning game is going to be very crucial if it wants to survive. Or else, Bersatu will end up like IMP, Parti Negara, Berjasa, Hamim, Semangat 46, etc.
Bersatu has outlived its purpose and now needs to reposition itself
Look at what happened to Gerakan. Gerakan was set up as a party of liberal Malaysians, in particular liberal and intellectual Malays (the reason why my late father supported it in 1969). Then it became just another Chinese party. That is why today Gerakan is no longer relevant — because who needs another DAP-MCA?
We already have a Malay party, Umno, and an Islamic party, PAS. Where does Bersatu fit in? Head-on against Umno and PAS (like in Terengganu and Kelantan in May 2018), Bersatu will win zero seats (as did PKR and Amanah in May 2018). So Bersatu needs to share the cake, not fight for the cake.
Umno won one-third and PAS two-thirds of the seats in Terengganu and Kelantan in May 2018 (while Bersatu, Amanah and PKR won zero). The question now would be, how will Muafakat Nasional share or divide the seats in GE15?
Each state would have a different formula but basically it may be 50:50 (60:40 for PAS vs Umno in some parts of Malaysia and 30:70 in other parts). With Bersatu included, would that now come to 45:35:20 — Umno:PAS:Bersatu?
Will Muafakat Nasional continue to be just Umno and PAS or will it now include Bersatu?
The sharing formula may have to be “winnable” rather than “traditional”. Anyhow, in Pakatan Harapan, Bersatu has no future. Its future lies in Perikatan Nasional. In the end, we may actually see what happened to Semangat 46 happen to Bersatu: meaning it will close down and everyone returns or joins Umno or PAS.
The problem, of course, is not the formula. The problem is politicians and political parties are greedy. And therein lies the problem.
Have you heard the story about the lion, the wolf and the fox?
Is Bersatu the wolf or the fox?
One day, the lion, the wolf and the fox killed a goat and the lion told the fox to divide the meat. The fox divided the meat equally three ways and the lion pounced on the fox and killed it. The lion then asked the wolf to divide the meat and the wolf split it into 80% for the lion and kept only 20%. And they both lived happily ever after.
In this situation, does Bersatu want to be the wolf or the fox because the lion is definitely Muafakat Nasional? But then that is not so bad because the goat that got killed is Pakatan Harapan.
