Muhyiddin won’t go for snap polls, say analysts

(FMT) – Political analysts are of the opinion that Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will not heed growing calls from Umno for a snap general election since the odds would be against his party, PPBM.

However, they expect Umno to continue to press for the dissolution of Parliament because it believes Muafakat Nasional, in which it is a partner with PAS, will get the lion’s share of the votes.

Azmi Hassan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia noted that PPBM was mired in internal issues and said Muhyiddin would not call for an election at least until these were resolved.

The most prominent of these issues is the challenge to the legitimacy of Muhyiddin’s government that is posed by PPBM founder Dr Mahathir Mohamad and the faction he leads.

“As long as there are issues involving the legitimacy of leaders in the party, Muhyiddin will never call for an election,” Azmi said.

He also said PAS and Umno, being the two largest Malay parties, would likely dictate terms during negotiations for seat distribution among the Perikatan Nasional partners.

Because of this, he added, Muhyididin would not call for an election until he had strengthened PPBM by increasing the number of MPs on its side, most probably through defections.

The latest call for Parliament’s dissolution came yesterday from Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan. He and others before him cited political uncertainty because of the ruling coalition’s thin majority in Parliament.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said it would not be wise for Muhyiddin to call for a snap election while PPBM was still divided and its election machinery still weak.

He agreed with Azmi that Umno and PAS would dominate seat negotiations and said they would probably not allow PPBM to contest for even 50 seats, the number it vied for in the 14th general election.

Nor would they agree to having Muhyiddin retain the prime minister’s post after GE15, he added.

Wong said Muhyiddin’s best strategy would be to seek a truce with Pakatan Harapan by promising to end selective prosecution, undertake parliamentary reform and give equal funding to all MPs in exchange for cooperation from the opposition.

This would be better than “getting slaughtered by Umno and PAS” in a snap election, he added.

He also said a truce would be welcomed by the business community and the general public.

“The simple fact is that a snap election won’t stop the political impasse because Umno and PAS can’t win 112 seats out of 165 seats in West Malaysia.

“GPS will definitely stand under its own flag instead of being tied with PAS. It will be free to bargain after the election. The same would go for most Sabah MPs, who will go to the highest bidders.”

Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs agreed that dissolving Parliament would not be in Muhyiddin’s best interest.

But he told FMT he expected Umno to keep up the pressure.

“Umno will either keep on pushing till Muhyiddin steps down or calls for polls because it believes it will win big,” he said.