What Mahathir said about Anwar is true
And this is the reason why DAP is clinging on to Mahathir for dear life. DAP knows that on its own it can go no further. They need Malay votes. And five general elections over 20 years have proven that Anwar cannot deliver those Malay votes.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said Anwar Ibrahim cannot be Pakatan Harapan’s or Pakatan Plus’s choice of prime minister because he is not popular amongst the Malays. Actually, this is true and has become even more so since the DAP-led Pakatan ruled Malaysia for 22 months from May 2018 to February 2020.
Let us analyse Anwar’s track record over the last 20 years or so from 1999 till 2018.
The years 1998-1999 can be said to be the peak period of the hatred for Mahathir and also the peak period of the “love” for Anwar. However, in the 1999 general election, PKR garnered only 773,679 votes versus 994,279 for PAS. All parties combined in the Barisan Alternatif coalition won only 2.7 million votes against the 3.8 million votes won by the Umno-led Barisan Nasional.
After Mahathir resigned in October 2003, the hatred for the old man died off. And in the March 2004 general election PKR was wiped out. Hence the 1999 general election before that was not so much love for Anwar but hate for Mahathir that decided the outcome. And once Mahathir retired, the Malays no longer saw any need to vote for PKR.
The fact that Umno won 2.5 million votes (or 4.5 million for Barisan Nasional) while PKR won only 600,000 votes demonstrates this. Even PAS performed better at 1.1 million votes. Anwar was not a factor in the 2004 general election.
DAP knows Anwar cannot deliver the Malay votes
Anwar tried again in 2008 and 2013. In 2008, PKR won 1.5 million votes against Umno’s 2.4 million and 4 million for Barisan Nasional. In 2013, PKR won 2.2 million votes versus 3.3 million for Umno and 5.2 million for Barisan Nasional.
Only in the fifth general election 20 years later in 2018 did Anwar or PKR finally make it. Even then, PKR won only 2 million votes versus also 2 million for DAP and 2 million for PAS. Hence PKR, DAP and PAS were par in terms of popular votes. Umno, on the other hand, won 2.5 million votes.
So, even at the height of the so-called “love” for Anwar and hate for Umno, Umno still performed better than PKR. Hence what Mahathir said is true. Anwar is not really popular amongst the Malays. And if not because of the additional 1.4 million votes contributed by Parti Pribumi Bersatu and Parti Amanah Negara, Pakatan Harapan would not have won the 14th general election or GE14 in May 2018.
It was not until DAP endorsed Mahathir as PM did they manage to swing the Malay votes
In the 13th general election or GE13 in 2013, PKR won 2.2 million votes. However, in the 14th general election in 2018, PKR’s votes dropped to 2 million, the same as the 2 million votes each for DAP and PAS. So, PKR’s results did not translate to Malay popularity for Anwar. And they needed PPBM’s and PAN’s 1.4 million votes to win the general election.
Anwar and PKR on their own cannot swing the election. The 2018 swing was not because of Anwar or PKR, or even DAP. DAP has reached the ceiling and the party cannot go beyond what it has already achieved. Any higher must come from the Malay votes. And DAP knows this.
And this is the reason why DAP is clinging on to Mahathir for dear life. DAP knows that on its own it can go no further. They need Malay votes. And five general elections over 20 years have proven that Anwar cannot deliver those Malay votes.
DAP needs Mahathir for these Malay votes but then they risk losing Chinese votes by cosying up to Mahathir. Hence DAP needs to give the impression that Mahathir is only sementara waktu to con the Malays into voting for them, after which Mahathir will be ousted in favour of Anwar.
