Can Umno go solo and win if a snap GE15 is held?
If Umno wants to return as the big boss or big brother, then it will have to drop PAS and PPBM and go solo in GE15. Then it can call the shots without having to worry about the feelings of PAS and PPBM. But that is if they can win GE15 on their own without PAS and PPBM.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Muafakat Nasional was actually mooted long before GE14 in May 2018. The idea was Umno and PAS would enter into an electoral pact, even if not an official coalition, and contest one-on-one with Pakatan Harapan, instead of three-corner contests or more.
In fact, the first discussions were held in 2015, three years before GE14.
But many Umno leaders did not agree to the collaboration with PAS — whether a mere informal electoral pact to agree on straight fights or whether an official coalition such as Muafakat Nasional.
Most Umno leaders — Najib Tun Razak and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi included — felt that Barisan Nasional can still win 135 parliament seats with Umno winning at least 90 or so of those 135 seats.
Other Umno leaders who did more thorough intel did not agree with this forecast. They felt that, without an electoral pact or coalition with PAS, Barisan Nasional would win less than 90 parliament seats, maybe even just 85 seats.
So, the Umno leadership was divided between those who felt they can do okay without PAS and those who felt an Umno-PAS collaboration was necessary.
On 9th May 2018, it was proven which of the two “schools of thought” was correct when Umno and Barisan Nasional got humiliated at the ballot box.
I spoke to one Umno leader as to why they turned their back on the Umno-PAS collaboration idea and he told me they thought they could win GE14 without PAS. Now they realise it was a mistake.
Today, many Umno people are feeling what they felt before GE14 — which is they do not need Perikatan Nasional or PPBM to win GE15. So, they want a vote of no confidence to be passed against Muhyiddin Yassin so that the government can collapse and then parliament can be dissolved to make way for a snap GE15.
And they hope GE15 can be held as early as November 2020 or the latest by February-March 2021.
So, the million-dollar question we now need to ask is, just like we asked five years ago back in 2015: can Umno win GE15 just as Barisan Nasional? Or will Umno need a Muafakat Nasional coalition with PAS to win GE15? And if just as BN or MN, without PPBM and Perikatan Nasional in the electoral pact, will Umno get back into power or will Umno suffer the fate it suffered in GE14 in May 2018?
If Umno wants to return as the big boss or big brother, then it will have to drop PAS and PPBM and go solo in GE15. Then it can call the shots without having to worry about the feelings of PAS and PPBM. But that is if they can win GE15 on their own without PAS and PPBM.
