Umno’s game-plan is to trigger a snap GE15
Anwar is merely playing poker. He is hoping he can bluff his way to a win. Those 19 Umno MPs who are said to be supporting Anwar do not really support him to take over as PM9. As what Lokman Noor Adam revealed, they are just supporting Anwar to topple Muhyiddin, not to take over as PM9. What they really want is to see Parliament dissolved to make way for a snap GE15. And these Umno people are using Anwar to achieve this.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
PKR wants His Majesty Seri Paduka Baginda Yang di-Pertuan Agong to grant Anwar Ibrahim an audience. The purpose of the audience is so that Anwar can present the list of 132 Members of Parliament who support him to take over from Muhyiddin Yassin as Malaysia’s Prime Minister.
The impression being created is that the Agong refuses to meet Anwar, which is why His Majesty admitted himself into hospital a day before the alleged audience was supposed to take place. Even Pakatan Harapan’s portal, Sarawak Report, has jumped in to whack the Agong for “hiding” in hospital to “avoid” meeting Anwar.
“Yet, on the Monday before Anwar went public the Agong had announced he was entering hospital for treatment of a sudden minor heart complaint and that the audience would need to be postponed. His condition was refined by the end of the week into a minor bout of food poisoning and a sports injury was then thrown into the mix.” (Sarawak Report, “Yet another Constitutional Crisis on the horizon?”, 1 October 2020)
If PAN is in then PAS is out
Is the Agong avoiding to meet Anwar? Is this hospital trip just an excuse to not meet Anwar? Or is the Agong really not well and it is just a coincidence His Majesty became unwell a day before His Majesty was supposed to meet Anwar?
What most people seem to miss is that Anwar refuses to name or list down those 132 MPs who are said to be supporting him to take over as the new Prime Minister or PM9. Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, in fact, says he doubts Anwar has 132 MPs with him. Even DAP, Anwar’s strongest ally, has hinted they are not sure whether Anwar really has 132 MPs with him.
Could this be why His Majesty the Agong is not in a hurry to meet Anwar? Does His Majesty know Anwar does not have the numbers? Or is His Majesty trying to buy time for Muhyiddin to torpedo Anwar’s attempt to gather 132 MPs to support him to take over as Prime Minister?
Anwar’s 132 MPs supposedly include 19 or so Umno MPs and 42 DAP MPs — plus another 18 from PAS and 11 from PAN. The problem, however, is that if Umno is in Anwar’s team, then DAP will bail out. And if PAN is also in Anwar’s team, then PAS will bail out as well.
Anwar will lose DAP’s support if Muafakat Nasional is in his new coalition
Anwar has to choose between UMNO and DAP, and also between PAS and PAN. He cannot have Umno, DAP, PAS and PAN all in the same boat. Hence, he will merely be exchanging one for the other. Campur and tolak, back to the same figure. The same with the parties from Sabah and Sarawak. They will not want to get involved if PAS and/or Umno is in (Warisan being one example).
So where are those 132 MPs going to come from? From the left or from the right? Anwar is suggesting they come from BOTH the left AND the right. Is this possible? Mahathir does not think so, and neither do many other people.
MPs from Sabah and Sarawak said they might join Anwar’s new PKR-DAP-Umno-PAS-PAN government if Anwar really has the numbers. But they will join only AFTER Anwar gets the numbers. In other words, Anwar needs to get the numbers first, at last 112 MPs, then they will join Anwar to help increase his majority.
In short, get the party going first and then we will join the party after it has started. So, the Sabah and Sarawak MPs are not going to help Anwar oust Muhyiddin. Anwar will have to oust Muhyiddin on his own and then, once the government has changed, they will help strengthen it by increasing Anwar’s majority in Parliament.
Mahathir will never allow Anwar to become PM9
In essence, what the Sabah and Sarawak MPs are saying is, they will support the winner. But go win first and then give us a call. The Sabah and Sarawak MPs are not going to be Anwar’s tool to topple the government. But if Anwar can topple the government, they will be very happy to join the new government. If not, they will stay where they are.
This, in fact, was also what happened in 2008. Anwar announced his “16th September” coup. But for it to succeed, he needed at least 15 MPs from East Malaysia to make up the total of 30 MPs he required to topple the government. But the Sabah and Sarawak MPs said they are prepared to give Anwar the 15 MPs he needed from East Malaysia if he can prove he already had 15 MPs from Semenanjung Malaysia.
Anwar could not prove he had 15 MPs from Semenanjung Malaysia so the East Malaysian MPs stayed put and Anwar’s “16th September” coup fell flat.
Anwar’s latest coup attempt is merely “16th September” version 2.0
Anwar was hoping that once the 15 MPs from East Malaysia joined him, then another 15 MPs from Semenanjung Malaysia would do the same. It would be like a snowball rolling down the hill. So, he needed the 15 MPs from East Malaysia to start the exodus. But the 15 MPs from East Malaysia refused to start the exodus. They would only join it once it started.
And that’s why the “16th September” coup failed. And this is the same dilemma Anwar is facing now. He needs to start the exodus but no one wants to be the mouse that bells the cat. It is like being in the front row of a military charge. The front row suffers the highest number of casualties, and what happens if the back row does not join the charge?
Anwar is merely playing poker. He is hoping he can bluff his way to a win. Those 19 Umno MPs who are said to be supporting Anwar do not really support him to take over as PM9. As what Lokman Noor Adam revealed, they are just supporting Anwar to topple Muhyiddin, not to take over as PM9. What they really want is to see Parliament dissolved to make way for a snap GE15. And these Umno people are using Anwar to achieve this.
