Without DAP, Anwar’s “16 September 2.0” is doomed
Another important point to note, if Anwar can topple Muhyiddin by getting MPs to cross over, that would mean Anwar can also be toppled the same way. Hence, while Mahathir was PM for 22 months and Muhyiddin for seven months, Anwar may be PM for just three months. In the end, Malaysia will become like Italy where they have had 61 governments in 75 years.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Anwar Ibrahim’s audience with His Majesty Seri Paduka Baginda Yang di-Pertuan Agong on Tuesday is not a fait accompli, as PKR is trying to make it appear. (Fait accompli: a thing that has already happened or has been decided before those affected hear about it, leaving them with no option but to accept it).
Article 40 and 43 of the Federal Constitution of Malaysia (SEE BELOW) is bordering on ambiguity and is the subject of many a debate. But then many Articles in the Constitution are the same. For example, you have freedom of assembly but you need police permission to do so and the police can refuse permission. You have freedom of religion but not freedom to reject the belief in God. And so on.
His Majesty the Agong cannot sack Muhyiddin
The issue here is the Agong SHALL act on the ADVICE of the Prime Minister. But does SHALL mean MUST and does ADVICE mean ORDER or COMMAND? Some experts say SHALL means MUST and ADVICE means ORDER or COMMAND. Others say no.
Then we have the part where the Agong can exercise his discretion in the appointment of the Prime Minister.
Okay, that is well and fine when the Prime Minister has resigned or just after a general election when the post of Prime Minister is vacant. But what happens when the post of Prime Minister is NOT vacant?
When the Agong appointed Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as PM7, it was just after the GE and the post of PM was vacant. Then Mahathir resigned, so when the Agong appointed Muhyiddin Yassin as PM8 the post of PM was, again, vacant.
However, at the moment, the post of PM is NOT vacant, and will not be on Tuesday, 13th October 2020, as well. So how will the Agong appoint Anwar as PM9 when there can only be one PM and the post of PM is already filled?
In other words, Muhyiddin needs to first vacate the post of PM8 before the Agong can appoint Anwar as PM9. And while the Agong has the power to appoint Muhyiddin as PM8, His Majesty has no power to sack or remove Muhyiddin.
Anwar needs BOTH DAP and Umno, not EITHER DAP or Umno
And this is where it gets complicated. You would expect if one has the power to hire then one has the power to fire as well. But in the case of the post of PM this is not so. The Agong can hire but cannot fire.
So, Muhyiddin needs to be fired either by the 222 Members of Parliament through a vote of no confidence or by the 20 million or so Malaysian voters through a general election.
If the 222 MPs (or at least 112 of the 222 MPs) pass the vote of no confidence against Muhyiddin, that does not mean he is automatically sacked. Muhyiddin now has to request an audience with the Agong to inform His Majesty he has lost the support of Parliament.
Muhyiddin then either tenders his resignation as PM8 (which means the post of PM is now vacant and His Majesty can swear in a new PM) or Muhyiddin can advise the Agong to dissolve Parliament (which the Agong can refuse consent if His Majesty so wishes).
Without crossovers from Perikatan Nasional, Anwar’s “16 September 2.0” is doomed
On the other hand, after Anwar’s audience with the Agong on Tuesday, His Majesty can summon Muhyiddin for an audience so that the PM can prove he still has at least 112 MPs with him. But that can only happen after the 14 days quarantine that Muhyiddin is undergoing.
What happens if Anwar “proves” he has 121 MPs with him and Muhyiddin also proves he has 113 MPs with him. Both cannot have the majority, which means one of them is playing poker. How will the Agong solve this deadlock?
Since Muhyiddin has proven he still has 113 MPs with him and he is the sitting Prime Minister, then his claim overrides Anwar’s claim and Muhyiddin remains as PM8. If Anwar is not happy with this, he can always ask for a vote of no confidence to be passed against Muhyiddin in Parliament. Until then, Muhyiddin stays as PM — until not less than 112 of the 222 MPs vote otherwise.
Anwar does not have 121 (or 132) MPs with him. He is hoping to get 121 or 132 if he can trigger an exodus. And this exodus may happen if the 222 MPs believe Anwar has the majority because everyone wants to be on the side of the winner and not on the side of the loser.
Both Umno and DAP will be punished if they join Anwar in bed
This was the same strategy Anwar adopted for “16 Septembers 1.0” in 2008 and it failed then. And Anwar’s “16 September 2.0” is also failing. This is because to get his so-called numbers he needs Umno, Sabah and Sarawak to be on board. But if Umno is on board then DAP is out. So that means his “numbers” are reduced by 42. And if Anwar wants to keep DAP, then Umno cannot be included, which means he will also not get his numbers.
Anwar’s hope is to get 20 MPs from Umno added to the 42 from DAP. If it is going to be either Umno or DAP, then it is game over. Umno will not go to bed with Anwar if DAP is included. And vice versa. If Umno gets into bed with DAP, it is going to be the death for both. The Malays will punish Umno while the Chinese will punish DAP.
But it will be good for PAS and PPBM though, because if Umno goes to bed with DAP the Malays will leave Umno in droves. In the 2018 general election, about 750,000 Malays deserted Umno. These Malays have now gone back to Umno. But if Umno is in cahoots with DAP, about one million Malays will go to PAS and PPBM and Umno will be history…as will DAP.
PAS and PPBM will benefit from the one million Malays who will abandon Umno due to the Umno-DAP orgy with PKR
In the long run, Anwar’s “success” on Tuesday, if it does succeed, will be the nail in DAP’s and Umno’s coffins because he can only succeed if DAP and Umno join him in bed for an orgy.
Another important point to note, if Anwar can topple Muhyiddin by getting MPs to cross over, that would mean Anwar can also be toppled the same way. Hence, while Mahathir was PM for 22 months and Muhyiddin for seven months, Anwar may be PM for just three months. In the end, Malaysia will become like Italy where they have had 61 governments in 75 years.
************************************************************************
Federal Constitution of Malaysia
Article 40(1) In the exercise of his functions under this Constitution or federal law the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall act in accordance with the advice of the Cabinet or of a Minister acting under the general authority of the Cabinet, except as otherwise provided by this Constitution; but shall be entitled, at his request, to any information concerning the government of the Federation which is available to the Cabinet.
(1A) In the exercise of his functions under this Constitution or federal law, where the Yang di-Pertuan Agong is to act in accordance with advice, on advice, or after considering advice, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall accept and act in accordance with such advice.
(2) The Yang di-Pertuan Agong may act in his discretion in the performance of the following functions, that is to say,
(a) the appointment of a Prime Minister.
(b) the withholding of consent to a request for the dissolution of Parliament.
Article 43(4) If the Prime Minister ceases to command the confidence of the majority of the members of the House of Representatives, then, unless at his request the Yang di-Pertuan Agong dissolves Parliament, the Prime Minister shall tender the resignation of the Cabinet.
