Umno’s and PPBM’s MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction
Even Mahathir knows a new coalition cannot work. If Umno moves over to Pakatan Harapan, DAP is out. If PAN is in then PAS is out. The Chinese will never support Umno and the Malays will never support DAP. Hence both DAP and Umno in the same bed would mean they lose both the Chinese and Malay support simultaneously.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
I attended a lecture in Oxford University on the 50th Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis. That crisis between the US and the USSR was when the world almost came to an end exactly 58 years ago on 16th October 1962.
But it did not. And that was because President John F. Kennedy and the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev knew that to “press the trigger” would mean both the US and the USSR would suffer Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD.
It is okay when the USSR attacks Afghanistan or the US attacks Iraq. These are weaker countries that can be wiped out easily. But when two powerful nations are equally strong, any attack by one would mean the destruction of both.
This is called Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD.
When war means MAD or Mutually Assured Destruction, war never starts
Today, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad told Utusan Malaysia there is no guarantee Anwar Ibrahim will have enough numbers (meaning at least 112 MPs) to form a new government, even with the support of the Umno MPs.
This was because other MPs (meaning the 42 DAP MPs) might withdraw their support after Umno confirms they are in the picture. “When there is an alliance between Anwar and Umno, there are people who will pull out, so they will not achieve the majority,” said Mahathir.
Mahathir also surprised everyone by saying that other political parties should leave the current Perikatan Nasional (PN) government alone and allow it to focus on managing the country’s Covid-19 crisis affecting the people. “If the existing government seems capable, then we should not disturb it.”
Mahathir then explained, if Umno decides to stop supporting PN, the coalition and hence the government would collapse. “Umno might think it can form a new government together with Anwar if it decides to leave PN. But not only will PN fall, Umno will also fall,” said Mahathir.
Mahathir could have said all that in just one word or in three letters: MAD.
Russia will bully Afghanistan but will back down in a staring contest with America
I have explained this in an earlier article two days ago (Umno and Bersatu are playing a game of chicken) where I said: “But then, who wins and who loses in this Umno-Bersatu game of chicken or Umno-Bersatu staring contest? No one wins. Both lose.” (READ MORE HERE)
Umno, PAS and PPBM cannot divorce. They either stay together or drown. One Umno chap has asked PAS to choose which coalition they want to be in, Muafakat Nasional or Perikatan Nasional. PAS cannot be in both.
If Umno and PPBM separate, or Umno leaves Perikatan Nasional, the government will collapse anyway. So what difference will it make? Either way PAS will be an opposition party again.
Umno is not happy. They have not been happy since the beginning. But they needed to oust the DAP-led Pakatan Harapan first, and then address their unhappiness later.
Today is that later.
Anwar helped open the door for Umno to revisit and negotiate the terms of its marriage to PPBM
When Anwar Ibrahim announced he has the numbers and will be having an audience with His Majesty Seri Paduka Baginda Yang di-Pertuan Agong, and Mahathir sent in his letter to the Speaker for a motion of no confidence to be tabled in Parliament, that opened the door for Umno to make their grievances known. (Dalam kesempitan ada kesempatan).
Umno is aware that a separation with PPBM is MAD. But politicians can sometimes be mad, so they will do what is MAD. Mahathir’s resignation in February 2020 is a case in point. It was a gamble that did not pay off.
So, do not think for one moment that for the sake of pride, honour and dignity, with some ego thrown in, Umno will not end Perikatan Nasional and in that same process end themselves. When push comes to shove, Umno is capable of doing that.
Muhyiddin’s choice: half a cake or no cake at all
But that would be the last resort. The first resort is to blackmail Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin into revisiting the terms of the marriage contract and revise the terms. And this is what is happening.
PPBM may have to concede some ground to keep the ground they already have. Better give away half the cake and still be left with half rather than have no cake at all.
Even Mahathir knows a new coalition cannot work. If Umno moves over to Pakatan Harapan, DAP is out. If PAN is in then PAS is out. The Chinese will never support Umno and the Malays will never support DAP. Hence both DAP and Umno in the same bed would mean they lose both the Chinese and Malay support simultaneously.
In the Cuban Missile Crisis incident, Kennedy and Khrushchev both had their fingers on the trigger and were engaged in a staring contest. The one who blinks first loses. For 12 days, the staring contest continued and the world was brought to the brink of a nuclear holocaust.
Then Khrushchev blinked first and the crisis ended. It was not that the US was more powerful than the USSR so Khrushchev chickened out. It is just that someone needs to blink first as no one was going to win this MAD situation if missiles start flying all over the place. And Khrushchev decided he would sacrifice his pride, honour, dignity, and ego for the sake of not blowing up the world.
