The window has closed for Pakatan Harapan

Yes, fate is a very tricky mistress. It is so unpredictable. It strikes when least expected. It misleads you and leads you astray. Fate does not always grant you your wishes. Some call it takdir, some call it karma, some call it God’s will. But one thing is clear, once the window closes, the opportunity disappears. And this is what Anwar and Pakatan are facing, an opportunity deficit.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

There is this thing called the window of opportunity. That window will remain open for a certain period of time, after which it will close. Whether it will ever open again is left to be seen, but once it closes it would be difficult for you to enter.

They also say opportunity knocks but once. Once opportunity knocks, you need to open the door to allow it to come in. If the door remains closed, then the opportunity would go away and most likely will never come knocking again.

The art of war teaches us you must be able to spot an opportunity and grab it

Whichever metaphor or analogy you wish to use, it all means the same — which is make hay while the sun shines, strike while the iron is hot, etc. (more metaphors). Sun Tzu and Niccolò Machiavelli both more or less say the same thing.

Today, PKR’s secretary-general, Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, called Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional government a minority government. It looks like they have finally accepted the fact that the government is not a backdoor government, as they initially claimed a year ago, but is a minority government.

The reality is, there is no such thing as a backdoor government. A backdoor government does not exist. What we have in Malaysia, today, is a minority government. That does exist.

However, whether the Perikatan Nasional government is a minority government or not is yet to be proven. Thus far, that has not been tested in parliament yet.

When the government was formed on 1st March 2020 it was NOT a minority government. If not, His Majesty Seri Paduka Baginda Yang di-Pertuan Agong would not have sworn Muhyiddin in as PM8.

Anwar is a good talker, but to succeed you must act, not just talk

However, whether since then it has been reduced to a minority government is anyone’s guess because it is still mere talk and has not been put to a test. No doubt this person or that person says this and that. But they need to act on that talk before it becomes valid.

For example, if a certain member of parliament from Perikatan Nasional no longer supports the government, then he or she must write officially to the Parliament Speaker to request his-her seating be moved over to the opposition aisle because he-she is no longer a government backbencher. Barulah betul!

But the issue we need to talk about today is whether that window of opportunity for Pakatan Harapan is still open or whether it has already closed.

No doubt Pakatan Harapan managed to form the government because they won 113 out of 222 parliament seats in the May 2018 general election — and they needed 112 seats to form the government. Hence Pakatan Harapan won just two seats more to avoid a hung parliament (a hung parliament would be 111 seats).

But Pakatan Harapan won only 5.5 million or 46% of the popular votes, which means they did not quite get the rakyat’s mandate as they claim. They just won an extra two seats on less than 50% of the popular votes (and Anwar Ibrahim said any government that gets less than 50% of the votes is an illegitimate government).

And that meant Pakatan Harapan was not really a stable government because all it needs is for two Pakatan Harapan MPs to cross over, resign, get disqualified (due to conviction, bankruptcy, etc.) or die for the government to fall.

When Mahathir resigned, a window of opportunity opened and Muhyiddin grabbed it

So, this is not really a “strong, convincing, formidable majority”, as Anwar Ibrahim keeps claiming. It is actually a very weak and shaky majority that can disappear any time if Pakatan Harapan is not careful.

Hence the first thing Pakatan Harapan needed to do was to entice crossovers from Barisan Nasional so that they can strengthen their majority because a two-seat majority would be inviting disaster. (These crossovers from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Harapan were not called frogs though, they were called patriots).

May 2018 was not Pakatan Harapan’s first attempt at grabbing power. They tried in 1990 and 1995 (as APU and Gagasan Rakyat), in 1999 and 2004 (as Barisan Alternatif), in 2008 and 2013 (as Pakatan Rakyat), and finally in 2018 (as Pakatan Harapan). Seven out of 14 general elections and finally, in the 14th general election, they won.

Why did they finally manage to oust Barisan Nasional and take over? Because the people were disgusted with the 1MDB scandal? Because the people were fed up with Rosmah Mansor? Because the rakyat finally woke up? Because Umno sabotaged the electoral pact with PAS?

Maybe a bit of each — however, it was mainly because Pakatan Harapan had tried six times since 1990 and had failed each time and they knew that doing the same thing again and again while hoping for different results is called lunacy. To get a different result, you need to do things differently.

Pakatan Harapan saw that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had a personal grudge against Najib Tun Razak. And it involved Najib not helping Mukhriz Mahathir to win the party elections so that he can one day become Malaysia’s Prime Minister (maybe PM9 pr PM10).

This was a window of opportunity. So Pakatan Harapan grabbed that opportunity. Forget about the past. Forget about Mahathir’s transgressions and misdeeds. Forget that Mahathir and his partner-in-crime, Tun Daim Zainuddin, stole RM100 billion and cost the taxpayers RM200 billion. Put aside principles and ethics and use Mahathir to topple Umno and Barisan Nasional.

Pakatan Harapan saw an opportunity to use Mahathir to topple Barisan Nasional

Yes, it was all about the window of opportunity. It was just politics. Strike while the iron is hot. Make hay while the sun shines. Open the door when opportunity knocks. Work with the devil and sell your soul to the devil if the devil can grant you your 30-year-old wish to oust Umno and Barisan Nasional.

Then Pakatan Harapan committed a major blunder. They tried to get rid of the devil that already owned their soul. And devils do not take too kindly at getting betrayed.

So, the devil resigned as the prime minister and a new window of opportunity was opened (as they say, one door closes and another one opens). Whoever could walk in first and prove he or she has the new majority in parliament (even if just 113 parliament seats like how Pakatan Harapan won the 14th general election in May 2018) that person would be able to get sworn in as prime minister or PM8.

The window of opportunity to become PM8 suddenly opened but would remain open for just a few days. And Muhyiddin saw this opportunity and he grabbed it. Then, after Muhyiddin successfully grabbed that opportunity, the window closed again.

Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Harapan are now left outside, while Muhyiddin is inside. And they are standing there hoping the window would open again. But it is now already one year, and the window stubbornly refuses to open again. In fact, it appears to be shutting even tighter. Opportunity does not seem to be knocking on Anwar’s or Pakatan’s door.

Yes, fate is a very tricky mistress. It is so unpredictable. It strikes when least expected. It misleads you and leads you astray. Fate does not always grant you your wishes. Some call it takdir, some call it karma, some call it God’s will. But one thing is clear, once the window closes, the opportunity disappears. And this is what Anwar and Pakatan are facing, an opportunity deficit.