Umno’s choice: work with Perikatan Nasional or work with Pakatan Harapan

But one thing that is going to be unavoidable is: to be able to form the government after GE15, deals will have to be made. No government can be formed without any deal. And it will have to be a deal between enemies against enemies. And unless Umno works with Perikatan Nasional, then it has no choice but to work with Pakatan Harapan.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

I have said this before and allow me to say it again: politics is about perception. It is what people believe, not about reality.

In 1999, most people hated Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and sympathised with Anwar Ibrahim, who was seen as a mangsa kezaliman. And the formation of Barisan Alternatif — which comprised of DAP, PAS, PKR and PRM — was a most historic event since Merdeka. To get DAP, PRM and PAS to join the same coalition was like getting Iran and Israel to form an alliance.

But it failed to win the hearts and minds of the Chinese. Why?

The Chinese believed, if PAS won the general election, they would turn Malaysia into an Islamic State and would introduce Hudud laws and hands of thieves would be amputated. They also believed that if Mahathir won the election with a narrow victory and without a two-thirds majority, he would trigger a ‘13 May 2.0’ to punish the Chinese.

So, while the Malays voted Barisan Alternatif (in spite of DAP and PRM being in the coalition) the Chinese voted Barisan Nasional to avoid an Islamic State, the implementation of Hudud, and ’13 May 2.0’.

In the 1999 general election, Umno’s seats dropped from 89 to 72 while Barisan Alternatif grabbed 42 seats from just 16 parliament seats in 1995 (Semangat 46 won an additional 6 seats). DAP, however, got 9 seats in 1995 and just 10 in 1999.

Hence DAP did not improve in spite of the Reformasi wave that hit Malaysia. The Reformasi wave was just a Malay thing. The Chinese were not on board. And yet the Chinese were the ones who cakap banyak and whacked Mahathir and Umno the most.

And the reason this happened was because of the perception the Chinese had. Perception means falsity becomes reality.

In the 2018 general election, perception also played a very important role. Malaysia is a kleptocracy. Malaysia is a failed state. Najib stole RM42 billion (maybe even RM50 billion or more, said Mahathir). The GST is to pay for Rosmah Mansor’s shopping. Umno is discriminating against the Chinese.

DAP’s Superman Hew told the Chinese that DAP was using Mahathir to kick out Umno, after which Anwar would become the prime minister

Hence Najib and Umno must be kicked out at all costs. And the man who is going to do this was Mahathir. So DAP was going to use Mahathir to kick Najib out and kill Umno (even DAP leaders such as Superman Hew confirmed this in his roadshow all over Malaysia to garner Chinese support). As a reward, Mahathir will be allowed to become the prime minister for two years after which he will hand over the post to Anwar to take over.

A small price to pay for a great reward. Let Mahathir become PM7 for just two years and Najib and Umno can be buried and Anwar can take over as PM8 after two years (plus he will be given a pardon at the same time).

As icing on the cake, Pakatan Harapan presented their 2018 election manifesto to the voters that included, amongst others, the abolishment of the GST so that Rosmah can no longer use this money to pay for her shopping, which came to about RM40-50 billion a year.

Yes, Pakatan Harapan played this perception game very successfully while Najib, as the metaphor goes, fiddled while Rome burned. Najib’s boys were sleeping and comfortable with the illusion that Barisan Nasional was going to win 135 parliament seats in GE14 (another warped perception).

Pakatan Harapan told the voters Najib stole RM50 billion from 1MDB and the GST was to pay for Rosmah’s shopping

At the end of the day, both Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional were proven to be merely playing the perception game and the voters and supporters from both sides of the political divide were taken for a ride.

And now they are at it again. GE15 is, again, going to be a game of perception. Voters and supporters are being told this, that and the other. But how much of it is true and how much are fake news merely to create a perception?

First and at the top of the list is the skirmish between Umno and PPBM, with PAS caught in the crossfire. What is really going on and how much of what we are being told is true?

Not long after Muhyiddin Yassin was sworn in as prime minister on 1st March 2020, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi went to see him to ask that all the court cases against him (Zahid), Najib, Rosmah and the other Umno leaders be dropped.

Muhyiddin said he will leave this to the courts and will not interfere in the judiciary or alter the course of justice.

Zahid went to see Muhyiddin to try to get his court cases quashed

In the past, the prime minister and the government have always been accused of interfering in the courts, and the opposition has attacked the PM and the government for this. This time the PM and the government are being attacked for NOT interfering in the courts.

That is reality and the rest is mere perception.

Umno or Barisan Nasional alone cannot win enough seats to form the government. The Sabah plus Sarawak parties alone cannot win enough seats to form the government. Perikatan Nasional alone (without Umno) cannot win enough seats to form the government. Pakatan Harapan alone cannot win enough seats to form the government.

So, if it is one versus one versus one versus one (a total of four ‘independents’ in a free-for-all), no one can form the government. It will be a hung parliament.

However, to form an alliance or electoral pact now, BEFORE GE15, will hurt them. East Malaysians cannot accept PAS. Sarawak cannot accept Umno. The DAP Chinese cannot accept Umno, PAS and PPBM. The Malays cannot accept DAP. Umno supporters cannot accept DAP and Anwar.

The Malays will punish Umno if they do a deal with DAP and the Chinese will punish DAP if they do a deal with Umno.

Perikatan Nasional may get kicked out in GE15, but that does not mean Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan will win enough seats to form the government

So, no deal — or rather no deal BEFORE GE15. However, GE15 will see no one winning enough seats to form the government. So, like it or not, they will still have to make a deal…but AFTER GE15, not BEFORE GE15.

That is the reality. That is no perception.

But both the DAP and Umno supporters cannot be told this. If they know about this, the Chinese and Malay supporters and voters of DAP and Umno will be outraged and will turn on their parties.

According to Military Intelligence and Bukit Aman, DAP’s Anthony Loke, PKR’s Anwar Ibrahim and Umno’s Najib Razak and Zahid Hamidi have met a couple of times and have agreed on a post-GE15 Pakatan-Umno Unity Government.

Anwar went to meet the Pahang and Johor Istana to inform them about this plan. The Selangor and Perak Istana have also been briefed. I am not at liberty to inform you about the stand or opinion of each of these Istana. Suffice to say, some are supportive of the Pakatan-Umno plan and some are against it.

So, which one is real, and which one is mere perception, in the runup to GE15? Well, which one was real and which one was mere perception in GE14 was discovered only after the election. So, you will need to wait until AFTER GE15 to know which one is mere perception, which by then will be too late.

But one thing that is going to be unavoidable is: to be able to form the government after GE15, deals will have to be made. No government can be formed without any deal. And it will have to be a deal between enemies against enemies. And unless Umno works with Perikatan Nasional, then it has no choice but to work with Pakatan Harapan.