Umno’s lost opportunity
Unfortunately, Umno has lost the opportunity to prove that Umno Baru is Umno Lebih Baru — or a reformed Umno. Instead, they are proving that Umno Baru is, in essence, Umno Lama. Umno may have been a victim of Pakatan Harapan fitnah in GE14, that I do not deny. However, in GE15, Umno is going to be a victim of a self-inflicted wound. And they cannot blame Pakatan Harapan for that.
NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
In the 2018 general election, Umno won 20.9% of the votes and 24.31% of the seats.
In the 2013 general election, Umno won 29.42% of the votes and 39.64% of the seats.
In the 2008 general election, Umno won 29.98% of the votes and 35.59% of the seats.
In the 2004 general election, Umno won 35.69% of the votes and 49.77% of the seats.
Yes, 2004 was Umno’s best general election (when the opposition got massacred) while 2018 was Umno’s worst general election (when the ruling party got massacred).
Okay, compare “the best” with “the worst” and see what the difference between the two general elections is. And can you see that the difference is only 15% of the total votes, which represents 25% in seat difference?
Another 4 to 5 million of these people will be voting in 2023, and they will NOT be voting for Umno (or for PAS and PPBM)
Now, let us assume that the next general election will be held around mid-2023 when the current term of Parliament legally ends. And, by then, those aged between 18 to 21 will be allowed to vote.
How do you think Umno (or even PAS and PPBM) will perform in the mid-2023 general election when millions of new voters aged between 18 to 21 will be voting?
You do not need to be a genius like me to figure it out. Even those close-minded and dense-brained anti-Perikatan Nasional people can see what is going to happen. Umno has the chance of a snowball in hell to win GE15.
Hence the Pakatan Harapan people should not push for an early general election by trying to get Parliament to convene — so that a vote of no confidence can be passed against Muhyiddin Yassin. If they do that (like they tried to force Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to resign in February 2020), then Muhyiddin will be forced to dissolve Parliament and call for a snap general election.
Umno lost the opportunity to reform after its defeat in GE14 — and it will pay for this in GE15
Leave Muhyiddin alone until Parliament automatically ends in mid-2023. Then GE15 will automatically be called, the latest by August 2023. And by then millions of new voters will be registered to vote, especially those aged between 18 to 21.
In the last general election, there were 18 million eligible voters and 15 million registered voters. By 2023, there will be 23 million eligible voters and most likely 19.5 million registered voters.
In the last general election, 4 million voters voted for the government and 7.5 million voted for the opposition (5.5 million for Pakatan Harapan and 2 million for PAS).
Who do you think the newly registered 4.5 million voters will vote for, Umno or Pakatan Harapan?
Yes, the later GE15 is held, the worst it is going to be for the government. If GE15 is held now, then Perikatan Nasional has a better chance of winning — unless it is a three-corner contest between Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional. Then, of course, Pakatan Harapan will be back in power.
Umno is in denial mode. PAS and PPBM, on the other hand, are more pragmatic — they realise that only an Umno-PAS-PPBM bloc can ensure them of an election victory. If no Umno-PAS-PPBM bloc, then GE15 will end up like GE14 — the government is going to be kicked out.
Umno Baru is not Umno Lebih Baru but Umno Lama where criticism is not allowed — and the younger voters will reject that
GE15 in 2021 and GE15 in 2023 are two different scenarios. And GE15 with an Umno-PAS-PPBM bloc versus GE15 with a three-corner contest by Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional are, again, two different scenarios.
Many in Umno still think that Umno can go solo and still win the election. Maybe if Umno had grabbed the opportunity of its GE14 defeat in May 2018 to reform, then that may be so. But Umno failed to reform when it had the opportunity to do so and now that opportunity is lost.
Umno may grumble that it was a victim of fitnah and that is why they lost GE14. But the problem is, Umno is not doing anything to convince Malaysians that the fitnah was indeed fitnah. Umno is saying and doing things to give an impression that the so-called fitnah was indeed true.
It is not enough to scream that everything being said about Umno and its leaders is fitnah and just leave it at that. You need to say and do things to demonstrate that you are indeed a victim of fitnah. But Umno is doing the opposite.
Unfortunately, Umno has lost the opportunity to prove that Umno Baru is Umno Lebih Baru — or a reformed Umno. Instead, they are proving that Umno Baru is, in essence, Umno Lama. Umno may have been a victim of Pakatan Harapan fitnah in GE14, that I do not deny. However, in GE15, Umno is going to be a victim of a self-inflicted wound. And they cannot blame Pakatan Harapan for that.
