Is Undi18 really a Pakatan Harapan advantage?
Many assume that the younger voters will vote PKR and DAP — or, in short, will vote anti-government. That theory has not been tested yet and it will only be tested in GE15 once the 18-year-old to 21-year-old Malaysians are registered to vote.
NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Many people are pushing for 18-year-old to 21-year-old Malaysians to be registered as voters because they believe this age group will vote against the Perikatan Nasional government.
In the 14th general election in May 2018, 12,299,514 Malaysians came out to vote — 45.68% voted for Pakatan Harapan and 54.32% for what today is called Perikatan Nasional (but in 2018 was called Barisan Nasional-PAS).
Actually, only two-thirds of the eligible voters came out to vote in May 2018. Another one-third of Malaysians who were eligible to vote — or about 6.3 million Malaysians — either did not register to vote or did not bother to come out to vote.
Yes, for every two Malaysians who voted in GE14, one more who could have voted did not vote, a ratio of 2:1.
The 18-year-old to 21-year-old voters in the Malay heartland may benefit PAS more than Pakatan Harapan
Okay, let us say before GE15 the 18-year-old to 21-year-old Malaysians register to vote. What will happen then?
It is estimated that out of a population of 33 million, two-thirds or 22 million Malaysians will be eligible to vote.
Based on historical data and kelazimannya — or what has normally been happening in Malaysia for the last 20 or 30 years — about 15 million will come out to vote. About 7 million will not bother to come out to vote or will not register to vote.
Hence GE15 will see an increase of 3 million voters over GE14.
From experience, the Malay youth in the Malay heartland are more politically active than those in the towns and cities. In fact, many Malay youth who work in the towns and cities register as voters in the Malay heartland. Hence, they balek kampung to vote, not vote in the towns and cities.
And this would mean it is highly likely PAS, PPBM and Umno will benefit from the new voters or younger generation voters.
Many assume that the younger voters will vote PKR and DAP — or, in short, will vote anti-government. That theory has not been tested yet and it will only be tested in GE15 once the 18-year-old to 21-year-old Malaysians are registered to vote.
True, the west coast, especially the urban areas, will see an increase in anti-government voters. However, proportionally, so will the east coast and the Malay heartland. And the below 21-year-olds in the east coast and Malay heartland are more fanatical about PAS.
