Vote of confidence or vote of NO confidence

Meanwhile, let us look at the new Cabinet line-up, which may act as a trigger for the 6th September 2021 vote of confidence, or vote of no confidence. If they are not happy with the new Cabinet line-up, there may be a Mutiny on the Bounty come September.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Seri Paduka Baginda Yang di-Pertuan Agong has titah (decreed) that a vote of confidence be held in Parliament on 6th September 2021 to determine whether Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob really does have the support of 113 members of parliament (114 with him included).

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad says it is not necessary, but Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah is pushing for it. Some say they have no choice but to abide to Tuanku’s titah or else they would be accused of treason (derhaka).

Constitutionally, it is not necessary for the PM to table this vote of confidence to test his majority (unless he would like to please the Agong by abiding to the titah), but if someone else wants to test the PM’s support by tabling a vote of NO confidence, then he or she can try.

Basically, we are talking about a coup here, albeit a constitutional rather than unconstitutional coup, but a coup, nevertheless. That is what it all boils downs to. And this is because the margin that is keeping the prime minister in office is so razor-thin (as it was for Mahathir in 2018 and Muhyiddin Yassin in 2020 as well) that all it needs are two or three votes to tilt the scales.

Malaysians better get used to the fact that the days when the government wins 80% or 90% of the seats in parliament are gone. Furthermore, post-election governments will need to be formed via electoral pacts and cross-party alliances.

With about 30 political parties and about seven or eight major players, the votes are going to be badly split, and no one will have enough seats to form a government. In fact, even coalitions will not have enough seats to form a government.

While this ensures no one has any hegemony or is the warlord of Malaysian politics, it also means there will be no stability in Malaysian politics. There will be so many warring tribes vying for control that it will be like in Afghanistan minus the guns and bombs.

Anwar Ibrahim has less than 90 MPs with him. Ismail Sabri has either 100 or 115 depending on what time of the day you are looking at it. About 15 MPs from Umno are not really with Ismail Sabri while another five opposition MPs can or cannot be with Anwar.

In other words, Anwar can be guaranteed 88 votes, Ismail Sabri can be guaranteed 101 votes, while 31 MPs are merely the kingmakers and can go either way, or they can abstain from voting altogether.

Maybe it’s time to discard coalitions. Let all parties contest all seats (or whichever seats they want) and then after the general election we see what happens. For sure, no one is going to win enough seats to form a government.

In such a situation, everyone or every party is for sale. The Islamists will want Islam. The Chinese will want their Chinese schools/education. The Malay nationalists will want their Article 153 and all that comes with it. The Indians will want…hmm, don’t really know what they want. The Sabahans and Sarawakians will want autonomy, the MA20 and MA18 restored and respected, and to NOT be treated as two of 13 states in Malaysia.

DAP and Pakatan Harapan are now pushing for a bipartisan government. But why did they reject the idea without thinking the day Muhyiddin Yassin proposed it? Now they regret acting too hastily and are insisting on a unity or bipartisan government.

Well, they rejected Muhyiddin’s proposal two Saturdays ago thinking that Anwar Ibrahim has the numbers. So why accept Muhyiddin’s unity government offer when Pakatan Harapan can take over as the new government.

Then they discovered that Anwar did not even have 100 votes while Sabri Ismail had more than 111. That was when they realised their mistake and started talking about a unity or bipartisan government.

So, will they try for a vote of confidence, or vote of NO confidence, on 6th September 2021? Pakatan Harapan knows that if a vote is held, Ismail Sabri is going to win, no doubt about that. But what they are worried about is that Ismail Sabri may get more than 114 votes, could be even 120 plus votes. If that happens, Pakatan Harapan would be embarrassed.

But what if 15 Umno MPs, plus Mahathir and friends, give Pakatan Harapan the votes, or abstain from voting? Then Ismail Sabri will fall and the whole process will start all over again. Will the 15 Umno MPs in collaboration with Pakatan Harapan MPs dare trigger chaos again? If they dare trigger May 13 then anything is possible.

Meanwhile, let us look at the new Cabinet line-up, which may act as a trigger for the 6th September 2021 vote of confidence, or vote of no confidence. If they are not happy with the new Cabinet line-up, there may be a Mutiny on the Bounty come September.