PRN Johor: will Umno-BN gets the two-thirds majority it is targeting?
If Pakatan Harapan can maintain its 600,000 votes, PPBM maintain its 200,000 votes, and PAS its 50,000 votes, that would mean 1,150,000 votes will go to Barisan Nasional. And that would mean Barisan Nasional could win two-thirds of the seats in the Johor state assembly, as its hopes to do.
NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
“Johor polls: Approximately 2,540,000 voters expected on polling day, says EC,” said The Star today (READ HERE).
There are roughly 2.6 million registered voters in Johor. In the 2018 general election or GE14, the voter turnout for Johor was 74% while the national average was 82%. This means the voter turnout for Johor was way below the national average.
And this was probably why Barisan Nasional got only 40% of the popular votes compared to Pakatan Harapan, which got 57%.
If the voter turnout this Saturday touches, say, 78%, then around 2 million people will be voting. In the 2018 general election, Pakatan Harapan won 781,000 votes against Barisan Nasional’s 556,000 votes.
But then more than 200,000 of Pakatan Harapan’s 781,000 votes came from Muhyiddin Yassin’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu. So that means, minus the PPBM votes, Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional won almost the same number of votes.
The 40,000 PAS votes in the 2018 general election helped Barisan Nasional a bit, but it was not really that significant.
Will this Saturday see an extra 700,000 votes over the 2018 general election? Will PPBM still win 200,000 or 250,000 votes like in GE14? If not, then where will those 200,000 to 250,000 PPBM votes go to?
If Pakatan Harapan can maintain its 600,000 votes, PPBM maintain its 200,000 votes, and PAS its 50,000 votes, that would mean 1,150,000 votes will go to Barisan Nasional. And that would mean Barisan Nasional could win two-thirds of the seats in the Johor state assembly, as its hopes to do.
