The most difficult election to predict

Jamari Mohtar, The Sun Daily

THE 15th general election (GE15) is turning out to be the toughest to predict which coalition will helm the government.

This is mainly because over the past four years, Malaysians have had the experience of being ruled by three different coalition governments, all with a tenuous majority, whose achievements were seen by the majority of the rakyat as far from satisfactory.

When caretaker Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the dissolution of Parliament on Oct 10, many analysts were saying the real contest would be among the three political coalitions – Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH).

According to most analysts, BN, with Umno as its lynchpin, had the edge in winning the election albeit with a wafer-thin majority.

While PH did not perform well in the Sabah and Sarawak state elections, BN experienced a resounding triumph in the Malacca and Johor state elections.

The argument it would be difficult for BN to win GE15 due to some Umno leaders who are tainted with corruption charges does not seem to hold water, judging from its landslide victory in the two state elections, and despite corruption being made the centrepiece issue by its political opponents.

By the time the Election Commission met on Oct 20 to announce the nomination and polling days, some analysts were saying BN would lose before the battle even begins for calling an election during the monsoon season.

But time and again, the PN government led by an Umno PM has shown its readiness to cope with the floods by assuring the rakyat that it has a solid plan to mitigate the worst effects of a devastating flood should it occur during GE15.

Moreover, it has now come to a point that the rakyat has already accepted the inevitability of an election during the monsoon season because uppermost in their mind is to have their say via the ballot box, come rain or shine, to end the tenure of government with a tenuous majority.

To them, it seems enough is enough with the idea of three governments with a tenuous majority over the last four years as it is the root cause of political and economic instability in the country, which has made them suffer so much.

Moreover, all coalitions – including BN – are calling their supporters and fence-sitters to come out in droves to vote.

When it comes to electing a stable government with a handsome majority, Umno is the first to use it with resounding success as an election slogan during the Malacca and Johor state elections.

This resonated with what the voters wanted. Thus, it is not a surprise that Umno/BN continues to use the catchphrase “Stability and Prosperity” as its slogan in GE15.

Meanwhile, PH’s slogan of Kita Boleh is nothing more than the Malay translation of former US president Barack Obama’s successful campaign slogan in the 2008 US presidential election, “We Can”.

It is also quite similar to the slogan Malaysia Boleh! associated with the achievements of Malaysia during Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s first tenure as PM from 1981 to 2003.

Unlike the BN slogan, which has proven to resonate with the voters in the Malacca and Johor state elections, it remains to be seen whether the PH slogan will resonate with voters.

Moreover, netizens have grown tired of the Boleh element of the slogan when they sarcastically mocked it as a Bolehland, with the negative implication of anything goes in Malaysia.

But sloganeering is a small component of success in a general election.

What matters are the issues, which are at the heart of the voter’s preoccupations and minds, that will motivate them to vote for a certain coalition that seems to show empathy on these issues.

In this regard, there are two equally important issues at the heart of the matter.

The first one is the economic issues that include bread and butter issues such as the high cost of living, affordable housing and healthcare, eradicating absolute and relative poverties, enhancing social protection and social security, and increasing the national pie so that each citizen will have relatively more to enjoy life in a developed and high-income nation.

Although quite materialistic, these are very important issues because humankind was created in such a way that he has to fulfil his material needs first before he can effectively and efficiently fulfil his non-material needs or idealism.

The second, equally important issue is the abstract and institutional ones (idealism) that revolve around abolishing corruption, inculcating good governance, equal access to opportunities (equity), fairness and social justice.

These are very important issues too because of the adage that man does not live by bread alone.

But as GE14 and the Malacca and Johor state elections have shown us, the two issues will resonate differently with the voters at different times.

In GE14, it was the abstract and institutional issues that carried the day and caused a milestone in the form of an unexpected victory for PH.

For the first time in the history of Malaysia, there was a regime change through the ballot box.

In the Malacca and Johor state elections, it was the bread and butter issues that resonated and gained primacy with the voters over issues such as busting corruption and good governance among others.

This could be due to the nation suffering from the severe impact of the Covid-19 pandemic then, where the material well-being of the rakyat was severely affected.

So, bread and butter issues became the singular and uppermost thing in the minds of voters.

Another reason could be the rakyat could see that when given the chance to rule the country, PH proved to be no better than BN.

It could not solve some of the bread and butter issues that it promised to solve in its GE14 manifesto, while the higher cost of living and affordable housing encapsulated in the phenomenon of the perut (tummy) economy remained core problems.

As for the abstract and institutional issues, which have brought PH to victory, the moment it was in power all charges against Lim Guan Eng were dropped when his court hearing was already nearing its tail end.

And despite the PH manifesto spelling out that the appointments of senior government officials were to be made in consultation with a parliamentary select committee and a politician must not head the Malaysian Anti Corruption Commission (MACC), PH conveniently went on to appoint a politician as the head of MACC without even having the courtesy to consult the Cabinet.

But this is not to say that BN will have a smooth path to an easy victory, albeit with a tenuous majority as most analysts think.

This could well be true before Umno’s president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi announced the list of BN candidates.

On Nov 1 when the Umno president announced the list of candidates, many incumbent Umno ministers were sorely missing from the line-up.

By doing so, Zahid has raised again the spectre of infighting within Umno between the court cluster and cabinet cluster, which will weaken Umno/BN in GE15.

Political analysts and observers will have their work cut out for them to predict the winning coalition.

It could well be that PN may just end up as the dark horse for GE15 just like its supremo Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was a dark horse, who became the eighth PM of Malaysia.

To begin with, its slogan for GE15 is about right – Prihatin, Bersih dan Stabil (Caring, Clean and Stable) – where both the bread and butter, and abstract and institutional issues are harmoniously balanced and addressed.

Jamari Mohtar is the Editor of Let’s Talk!, an e-newsletter on current affairs. Comments: letters@thesundaily