Malaysian voters’ priorities have changed

So what is the reason to vote for PH-BN now when a vote for PH is also a vote for BN (or vice versa)? Both PH and BN will need to come out with a new narrative, especially when Perikatan Nasional can offer the voters a third alternative: neither PH nor BN.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

In 1999, the first general election that saw a change of the voter mindset, 6.5 million Malaysians came out to vote. Umno won 30% of the popular votes while the 12-party coalition won 56% of the votes.

The 2008 general election can be considered the second stage of change for the Malaysian voters mindset when almost 10 million Malaysians came out to vote. Umno still won 30% of the popular votes but the Barisan Nasional coalition’s share of the votes dropped to 51%.

Ten years later, in the 2018 general election, the change can be considered complete when 12 million Malaysians voted and only 4 million votes went to Barisan Nasional. Umno’s share of the votes dropped to 21% while the coalition won only 34% of the votes and was ousted from power.

However, Umno did not accept the message which Malaysians were sending them, and in the recent 2022 general election, Umno’s 54 parliament seats were reduced to just 26 when 15.5 million Malaysians came out to vote. Umno’s 21% share of the popular votes in 2018 dropped to just 16% in 2022.

But Umno (or rather its President, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi) sold itself to Pakatan Harapan and came back into the government by helping Anwar Ibrahim to form the government. With Pakatan Harapan’s 82 seats and Barisan Nasional’s 30, the combined 112 seat gave Anwar the one seat majority he needed to form a government (112 parliament seats is the minimum needed to form the government).

To justify (and to save face) Umno forming a 112-seat coalition with Pakatan Harapan, Zahid Hamidi spun the story that it was Seri Paduka Baginda the Agong who titah (royal decree) Barisan Nasional to go to bed with Pakatan Harapan.

In other words, it is not Umno’s fault. It was the Agong who commanded it (in violation of the Federal Constitution of Malaysia where it states that Malaysia is a Constitutional Monarchy — like the UK — and not an Absolute Monarchy). Hence, if you are unhappy about it, then be unhappy with the Agong and not be unhappy with Zahid Hamidi, is what they are trying to say.

But then the letter from Istana Negara merely stated that the Agong appointed Anwar Ibrahim as the Prime Minister. It does not say anything about Barisan Nasional or that Barisan Nasional must form a coalition government with Pakatan Harapan (which for some strange reason they are calling it a ‘Unity Government’ — even though an opposition exists in Parliament and there is an Opposition Leader).

But then can Umno repeat its 2022 election performance? Umno won its 26 seats (and Barisan Nasional its 30 seats) against the backdrop of “No Anwar, No DAP” (plus “No Bersatu”). Against this new backdrop of “Umno jadi barua DAP”, it is not certain if Umno can still win the 26 seats it won in the 2022 general election. Some say even just 20 seats would be an uphill battle.

To add insult to injury, the recent “no contest for number one and number two” ruling, and the purge of those Umno leaders who refuse to accept the ban on the contest for the post of party president and party deputy president, may have seen the final nail in Umno’s coffin, which started five general elections ago and saw finality in the recent general election.

We need to note that the first change in 1999 was an anti-Mahathir factor. When Mahathir left in November 2003, Umno bounced back with the best performance in history in the March 2004 general election four months later.

In 2006, Mahathir attacked the government — and PKR, PAS and DAP gave him grassroots support. So, again, it was the Mahathir factor, which resulted in the fall of Penang and Selangor in 2008, two Chinese dominated states.

This anti-Umno/anti-BN sentiment spilled over into the 2013 general election, and in the 2018 general election the 1MDB factor (again headed by Mahathir) completed the destruction of Umno and Barisan Nasional.

The opposition gains in 2008, 2013, 2018 and 2022 were due to the rejection of Umno and Barisan Nasional. If you hate Umno/Barisan Nasional, then vote Pakatan Harapan. Now, a vote for Pakatan Harapan is also a vote for Umno/Barisan Nasional.

The Malay voters find it very hard to reconcile that logic, especially when a vote for Umno/Barisan Nasional can also be translated to a vote for Pakatan Harapan (or a vote for DAP). So what spin will they come out with to convince the voters in the six state elections or PRN later this year? Or can the voters even be convinced, in the first place, after 57 years of brainwashing that DAP is the enemy of the Malays and Islam?

One thing we must not ignore is the reason why voters voted for Pakatan Harapan. The PH vote was an anti-Umno/anti-BN vote. Hence a vote for PH is a vote against BN. It is either PH or BN.

So what is the reason to vote for PH-BN now when a vote for PH is also a vote for BN (or vice versa)? Both PH and BN will need to come out with a new narrative, especially when Perikatan Nasional can offer the voters a third alternative: neither PH nor BN.