Malaysia at 60: One country, three visions
Islamist rule, the secular status quo or a state within a state – the future of Malaysia looks shaky.
James Chin, The Interpreter
On 16 September, the Federation of Malaysia – a country widely regarded as a Southeast Asia success story – will celebrate its 60th anniversary. While neighbours such as Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have suffered military coups and a heavy toll from civil strife, Malaysia has only experienced one episode: the 13 May 1969 ethnic riots.
Back then, after order was restored, the political structure was revamped into a system based on Ketuanan Melayu (Malay Supremacy). This led to a long period of stability under the Barisan Nasional coalition, especially the years under the strongman Mahathir Mohamad, who ruled from 1981 to 2003. The system fell apart in 2018 when Mahathir, having come back from retirement, led the opposition to overthrow the BN. Remarkably, aged 93, he returned as prime minister from 2018 to 2020.
In November last year, after an inconclusive election, Anwar Ibrahim, long seen as a “Muslim democrat” by the West, was asked by the King to form a coalition government. The present two-coalition arrangements in Malaysia consist of Anwar’s Unity Government (Pakatan Harapan + BN + Borneo parties) and the opposition Perikatan Nasional (Bersatu, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia and Gerakan).
The biggest takeaway from the November 2022 election was “the Green Wave”, or the rise of political Islam and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS). PAS is now the largest party in the Malaysian parliament with 49 seats. The second-largest party in parliament is the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a Chinese-based party representing the non-Malays, with 40 seats.
While many politicians argued that the Green Wave was either not real or a one-off phenomenon, it may indeed reflect a significant shift in Malay politics. More and more Malays, especially in the younger demographic, are backing arguments that Malaysia’s future lies in PAS’ vision for the establishment of a Malay-Islamic state.
This was confirmed in the recent 12 August state elections, held across six states on the Malay Peninsula. The results indicate that PAS not only retained the Malay votes captured in November 2022 but increased their overall support by about 5-7 per cent among the Malay voters. In a remarkable display of PAS power, all the seats in the Terengganu state assembly were won by PAS, while in the neighbouring Kelantan state, PAS won all but two state assembly constituencies. Terengganu and Kelantan are seen as Malay heartland states.
The next general election is due in 2028 but likely to be held earlier. Whether these latest state results mean that Perikatan Nasional (and PAS) will inevitably win is still up for debate. But what is clear is that Malaysia’s politics is now fragmented over a vision for the country.
Three distinct views are competing.
