Highly ambitious and unachievable, analyst says as PAS eyes Selangor

“With the current electoral map, Perikatan Nasional or PAS couldn’t win the state (in the 2023 state election). I have huge reservations about their ability to win with the addition of new (mixed) seats”

(FMT) – An analyst has questioned the odds of PAS taking over Selangor in the next general election (GE16), saying the Islamic party has set itself a “very ambitious” and “unachievable” target.

Lau Zhe Wei of International Islamic University Malaysia said it would be difficult for PAS to win in a developed state like Selangor, which is a Pakatan Harapan (PH) stronghold, when non-Malay support for the Islamic party is close to none.

In a state with mixed demographics like Selangor, garnering support across racial lines is crucial to victory for any party, as opposed to relying on Malay voters who have made up PAS’s biggest voting bloc in recent elections.

Lau also warned that PAS’s chances would be slimmer if the next redelineation of electoral boundaries works in PH’s favour, especially with the addition of mixed seats.

“With the current electoral map, Perikatan Nasional or PAS couldn’t win the state (in the 2023 state election). I have huge reservations about their ability to win with the addition of new (mixed) seats,” Lau told FMT.

The last review of parliamentary seats took place in 2018, just before the 14th general election. The next redelineation of electoral boundaries in the peninsula is set to take place in 2026.

Last Sunday, Selangor PAS information chief Zurk Ahmad said the party was banking on its “PAS for All” campaign to win power in Selangor.

He said the state chapter was confident that Selangor would become more prosperous and able to provide more job opportunities if it was run by leaders from various communities.

Zurk also said Selangor PAS had made several pledges at its recently concluded retreat, including to transform Selangor into an economically competitive state, ensure corruption-free politics, and improve the utilisation of resources.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Mara meanwhile said that PAS’s goal of securing seats in Selangor was realistic.

However, he, too, said this might not be enough for the party to take over the state given its limited support among the non-Malays.

He said PAS, which currently holds 10 seats, would need to win more, noting that it managed to bag 15 seats in the 2013 general election when it was part of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition with PKR and DAP.

“The political base for PAS is Malay Muslims and in Selangor, there are Malay-majority areas with demographics similar to those on the east and north of the peninsula,” he told FMT.

“This includes Sabak Bernam, Hulu Selangor, Kuala Selangor, Kuala Langat, and some urban areas in Gombak. Given PAS’s strong influence in these areas, it is certain that the party will be the strongest challenger to PH in GE16.”