It is not if Sabah and Sarawak will exit Malaysia, it is when and how

If anyone in a relationship finds themselves perpetually giving more than they get, the relationship will inevitably end.

Nehru Sathiamoorthy

Let’s not ask ourselves as to whether Sabah and Sarawak want to secede from Malaysia. The answer is obviously a yes. It is obviously a yes because everybody wants to secede a relationship where the principle of reciprocity is not followed. Even your own parents and children will at some point disown you if you don’t obey the principle of reciprocity.

The principle of reciprocity says that in order for any relationship to be naturally maintained, everybody involved in it must enter the relationship with the intention to give as much as they get. If anyone in a relationship finds themselves perpetually giving more than they get, the relationship will inevitably end.

Sabah and Sarawak have always contended that they have been getting far less than what they have given in their relationship with Semenanjung. In their view, the Semenanjung has no intention of giving Sabah and Sarawak as much as it gets. As a matter, there are many Sabah and Sarawakians who actually see Semenanjung not as an equal partner, but as an exploitative or colonising force, that is intent on taking as much as it can while giving back as little as possible to Sabah and Sarawak.

Considering this, naturally, many Sabahans and Sarawakians have no more interest in staying with the federation any more than any of the foreign workers working in your neighbourhood mamak are interested in staying with their employer. Just like how the foreign workers in your neighbourhood mamak are only staying with their employer because they have no other option and because they need the money, Sabahan and Sarawakians are likely only staying with Malaysia because they have no other option and because they need the money too.

Malaysia however, is RM 1.5 trillion ringgit in debt. Considering this, at some point, we might just run out of money to give Sabah and Sarawak. At that point, we might even expect that Sabah and Sarawak bear some of our debts. If we reach that point, you can bet your bottom ringgit that Sabah and Sarawak will surely want to exit Malaysia.

We only think that Sabah and Sarawak have a relationship with us where they will suffer with us through thick and thin, but Sabahans and Sarawakians surely don’t think like that.

A factory owner who expects their employees to work for their company as if the workers themselves own the factory, but keeps most of the company’s profit for themselves as if they alone work in the factory, cannot expect the employee to risk their life to save the company if the factory catches fire. The owner who assumes too conveniently that the employees will do something to save the factory, on account of spending a significant portion of their lives in the factory and having many people in the factory who they call friends, will surely be sorely disappointed. To the owner, the factory might be a home to the employees, but to the employee, the factory is just a place that they ended up in, not a place that they wanted to be in.

In the same way, if Malaysia suffers an acute financial downturn or any other serious problem, you can bet your bottom ringgit that Sabah and Sarawak are more apt to secede than feel that they have a responsibility to stick together with Malaysia to turn things around, or at least, suffer together in solidarity.

The only question we have to ask ourselves with regards to the secession of Sabah and Sarawak is not whether they will do it, but in what condition will they do it?

Just like how every foreign worker dreams of escaping the exploitative working relationship that they have with their employer, although most of them will never do, Sabah and Sarawak might just dream of escaping their relationship with Malaysia, but they too might never do it unless the condition is right.

And what, you may ask, is the right condition for Sabah and Sarawak to exit Malaysia?

Well, the answer is simple. The right condition is one where they can expect a committed help from a foreign power, who desires that they secede Malaysia as much as they themselves desire to secede from Malaysia.

Currently, there are four foreign nations that might help Sabah and Sarawak exit Malaysia. These nations are Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia and China.

Indonesia owns two thirds of the island of Borneo where Sabah and Sarawak are located. They are already moving their capital to Borneo as we speak. Once their new capital, Nusantara, is fully operational, it will be Nusantara, not Putrajaya, that will have the most influence on Sabah and Sarawak. The name of Indonesia’s new capital, Nusantara, itself betrays the aspiration of Indonesia to be a regional power. In the 60s, Indonesia had already objected to Sabah and Sarawak joining Malaysia. At that time, Indonesia objected to Sabah and Sarawak joining Malaysia, because according to Indonesia, Sabah and Sarawak joining Malaysia is tantamount to subjecting Sabah and Sarawak to a form of neo-colonisation. In the 60s, Indonesia might have lost the battle to prevent Sabah and Sarawak from joining Malaysia because Sabahan and Sarawakians might not have believed in Indonesia’s contention that joining Malaysia is equal to subjecting itself to a form of neo- colonisation, but today, who is to say if that is still the case.

The Philippines is still claiming Sabah as its own until today. If the Philippines has not attempted to wrest Sabah from Malaysia, it is because it can’t, not because it doesn’t want to. The Philippines can only be expected to not pursue its claim on Sabah with strength to the degree that it is weaker than Malaysia and to the extent that Sabahans prefer Malaysia to the Philippines. If it comes to pass that one day, Malaysia becomes weaker than the Philippines or Sabahans prefer the Philippines more than Malaysia, who is to say that the Philippines will not pursue its intent on Sabah in a more committed fashion.

Singapore has a lot of money and people but not much space. Sabah and Sarawak have a lot of space but not much money or people. On that count alone we can see that Singapore has a lot of synergy with Sabah and Sarawak. If Sabah or Sarawak and Singapore were to decide to enter into an economic arrangement like that of the European Union, it could easily form a mutually beneficial relationship. Sabah and Sarawak also have a history with Singapore. Originally, Malaysia was formed by four entities, namely Sabah, Sarawak, Singapore and Malaya. When Singapore separated from Malaysia in 1965, Sabah and Sarawak chose to remain with Semenanjung, but just because they decided to stay with the Semenanjung in the 60s, it doesn’t mean that they can’t change their mind today.

Last but not least, China might be the most significant external power that might back the secession of Sabah and Sarawak. It is no secret that Beijing wants to control the South China Sea. If Malaysia doesn’t accede to Beijing’s desire to control the South China Sea, Beijing could simply choose to pursue its aim of controlling the South China Sea by supporting the intention of Sabah and Sarawak to exit Malaysia. If Sabah and Sarawak say that as independent nations, they will recognise China’s supremacy in the South China Sea, why wouldn’t Beijing support the right of Sabah and Sarawak to become independent nations? If the second most powerful nation in the world and the most powerful country in Asia is backing your independence, it is not going to be hard for Sabah and Sarawak to become independent.

It is the nature of problems to grow gradually, until it reaches a tipping point, at which stage the problem’s growth will accelerate rapidly.

Until October 6, everything was more or less normal in the Middle East. On October 7, the problem between Palestine and Israel hit a tipping point, and within less than a year, the Middle East looks like it is on the brink of World War 3.

Nobody thought Sri Lanka was having any significant problem until suddenly we heard the news that it was cancelling its national exams because it was so short on money, it could no longer afford to print exam papers. Within 6 months after it reached that tipping point, the house of  its prime minister was burnt by a mob and its president was forced to flee the country.

Malaysia has multiple problems. Economically we are not doing great, socially we are facing a lot of tension and politically we are in a state of mess. Despite that, life as we know continues to trudge along because it is the nature of problems to grow gradually and without notice until it hits a tipping point.

When it hits a tipping point however, each problem will serve as a catalyst to every other problem, and cause a chain reaction that will quickly cause everything to become out of control.

And who do we have to prevent all of this from happening? Anwar his coterie of merry men.

God save us all.