PH’s KKB win a morale booster but meaningless, says analyst

University of Tasmania’s James Chin says it does not reflect the future of Malaysian politics as most Malay voters still favour PN and PAS.

(FMT) – Pakatan Harapan’s success in defending the Kuala Kubu Baharu state seat will boost the coalition’s morale but is largely meaningless, says a political analyst.

James Chin of University of Tasmania said the race for the Selangor seat was a highly-localised election, and its results, which saw PH’s Pang Sock Tao winning by a 3,869-vote majority, did not reflect any significant change in Malaysia’s political environment.

“It doesn’t show that there’s any additional strength (in support) for PH and DAP. Although PH did increase their vote (in percentage terms), it is not significant,” he said, pointing out that the increase of between 2-3% came mostly from police and army votes.

“But those can shift at any time,” he added.

Chin said the by-election results did not indicate any significant change in the way people vote.

“The bulk of Malay voters in the country still favour Perikatan Nasional and PAS.

“This is a very localised election. You can’t use it to say that this is the future of Malaysian politics. It is just specific to this election,” he told FMT.

Pang successfully defended the seat last Saturday, beating PN’s Khairul Azhari Saut with a larger-than-expected majority. She also surprised many by taking the bulk of the early votes cast by the policemen, military personnel and their spouses.

Following the victory, Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki claimed the result was proof that “Malay voters have changed their attitude”, while Selangor menteri besar Amirudin Shari said it showed that more Malays were backing the unity government.

However, former MP Charles Santiago said promises made by Putrajaya to voters, especially the Indian community, and an apparent internal conflict between PAS and Bersatu may have worked in PH’s favour.

This came amid claims that PAS had not fully mobilised its members by sending them on the campaign trail despite the party forming the backbone of PN’s election machinery.

Meanwhile, Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the sentiment of voters in Kuala Kubu Baharu do not reflect those of the nation as a whole presently, although it may be a sign of things to come.

“It could reflect what’s in store for Malaysia in the future as more states urbanise and industrialise,” he said, pointing out that Kuala Kubu Baharu was a semi-urban, mixed seat with a multicultural demographic comprising Malays (50%), Chinese (30%) and Indians (18%).

He said its electorate was unlike northern and northeastern states in the peninsula, adding it showed that semi-urban Malay-Muslims would be open to voting for PH if government policies benefit them.

“The Kuala Kubu Baharu victory means that PH-DAP can be assured that at least some of the policies of the unity government appear to be working.

“PH and DAP’s current position is not exactly strong, but it’s gradually becoming stronger by the day as economic indicators such as investment and unemployment show improvement,” said Fauzi.

On the other hand, political analyst Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani said Pang’s strong win showed that DAP’s support was still intact despite recent criticism of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and other partners in the government.

“However, this should not be translated by PH as meaning that the non-Malay voters can be taken for granted in the next general election.”