Takeaways from the Sungai Bakap by-election
The status quo established in the 2022 General election still remains. The government today is no more stable than the government that was established in the aftermath of the 2022 General election.
Nehru Sathiamoorthy
In a state like Selangor, where the Malays feel that they are in power, they don’t mind voting for a non-Malay, as shown in the KKB by election not too long ago.
In a state like Penang, where the Malays feel that the non-Malays are in power, they will vote decisively for a Malay candidate, as shown in the Sungai Bakap by-election.
The Chinese are still behind Pakatan, although they are getting dissatisfied with Pakatan. Because of their dissatisfaction, If the Chinese feel that Pakatan will surely win, they will likely decide to abstain from voting, to send a message to Pakatan. If the Chinese feel that Pakatan will surely lose, they will likely decide to abstain from voting for Pakatan as well, to send a message to Pakatan. It is only if Pakatan has a fighting chance of winning, will the Chinese rally behind Pakatan, to ensure that it continues to reign, even if the Chinese are dissatisfied with Pakatan.
Indians are in a swing mode. They used to be behind Pakatan, but now they are not. They are already indicating to Perikatan that they are ready to be wooed. The Malays can be safely said to be behind Perikatan. The Chinese can also be safely said to be behind Pakatan. The jury is still out on who the Indians are behind.
The status quo established in the 2022 General election still remains. The government today is no more stable than the government that was established in the aftermath of the 2022 General election.
The subsidy rationalisation, if not executed well, is going to backfire heavily on the Madani government. The diesel rationalisation alone might be triggering widespread dissatisfaction against the Madani government. The goal of the subsidy rationalisation is to relieve the economic stress of the B40 and M40. The implementation of the diesel rationalisation plan however, is indicating that rather than relieving their economic stress, the subsidy rationalisation might be adding to their economic stress.
I have said it before and I will say it again: Anwar cannot run with the foxes and hunt with the hounds. He and his government must decide whether he is standing with the working class or the elites. Any of his initiatives to restructure the economy is bound to receive opposition by the elites, who are profiting from the economic status quo. Anwar and the Madani government might introduce the subsidy rationalisation to transform the economy, but the elites can and will derail his plans by using their control of the economy to make inflation run amok. Anwar can either collude with the elites to control the working class, or he can use the support of the working class to tame the elites. If he tries to do either one, and if he succeeds, he might be able to stabilise his rule. If he tries to do both, he will be cursed to lead a government that is perpetually in danger of falling apart.
The problem created by the 6 rebel Bersatu MPs is likely to continue for the time being. The problem created by the 6 rebel Bersatu MPs will only reach a conclusion when their seats are vacated and by-elections are held in all of their constituencies. The Sg Bakap by-election result however, indicates that now is not a suitable time to hold by-elections in the 6 rebel MP’s constituency. If by-elections are held now, there is a likelihood that the government might lose all 6 seats, and the loss will be used as a referendum against its rule. To prevent such an occurrence, the government will likely have to delay the affair of the 6 rebel MPs from coming to a conclusion, at least in the foreseeable future.
Anwar is losing credibility in regards to the Palestinian cause. At the rate that Anwar’s credibility in regards to the Palestinian cause is dropping, it won’t be surprising if the Palestinian issue is conflated with the subsidy rationalisation to paint Anwar in a negative light. It is no secret that subsidy rationalisation has long been a measure that international financial agencies like IMF favour and advocate. If the matter of IMF, BlackRock, subsidy rationalisation and being an half hearted supporter of the Palestinian cause is all conflated to label Anwar as a “Jewish agent“, Anwar can bravely claim that such “hate-driven politics and labels will not detract him from effectively managing the country”, but for all intent and purpose, it will. The outcome of the Sungai Bakap by-election is suggesting that it already is.
