Who will be PM if Anwar goes?

Calculating the odds on who is best placed to become PMXI, who will be most acceptable, and who is the one least hated by the rakyat.

Tajuddin Rasdi, FMT

In this article, I wish to play the devil’s advocate. The question here is simply, who will be the next Prime Minister after Anwar Ibrahim if he is ousted, falls sick or retires?

Or perhaps the question should be who has the political capacity to replace Anwar as Malaysia’s prime minister?

Why am I doing this now? Simple. Many people seem to think that Anwar is an unfit leader. Forget about Perikatan Nasional, they are not the “many people” that I referred to.

Who I am referring to are the rakyat in Peninsular Malaysia. I have no idea about how Sabahans and Sarawakians feel and whether they like Anwar or not, but this article is simply a reaction to what I have read in the media by writers from Peninsular Malaysia.

I do not mean to exclude the Malaysian states across the South China Sea, but please excuse my ignorance of the people and the politics of Sabah and Sarawak.

Why people dislike Anwar

Many Malays do not want Anwar because he is seen as a “servant” of DAP, which has been portrayed as a devil to Islam and syaitan (the devil) to Malays.

The likes of Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Najib Razak, Akmal Saleh and Hishammuddin Hussein have made sure that the Malays never forget that.

The Malays in PAS have recently been taught that to work with DAP, once upon a time their halal hugging partners, is now and forever more “haram” in the religious and political sense.

Conveniently left out in their argument is the fact that the Prophet Muhammad asked a Christian king to help the first immigrants in the hundreds; the fact that the Prophet was under the full protection of his ‘kafir’ uncle Abu Talib; and the fact that the Prophet signed an agreement in Madinah with the Jews and Christians.

Oh, and what about the Muslim Malays in DAP? To Malays they are liberals, sesat (lost) and servants of the devil DAP. So the Malays hate Anwar.

The non-Malay view

Then we have the non-Malays. They hate Anwar because he went back on his promises to reform and change many things.

He was supposed to open Universiti Teknologi Mara to everyone else besides Bumiputeras, increase the quotas for public universities, and recognise the Unified Examination Certificate.

He was supposed to tone down on Islam, not “convert” an Indian boy and chastise an Indian girl at a university.

If a tree falls in Kuala Lumpur and kills someone, it’s Anwar’s fault.

So, many gave him an ‘F’ and declared they will not vote for Pakatan Harapan. Some said they would not even vote at all.

So, there you have it. The democratic judgement of the rakyat. Anwar must go. Now, how will Anwar go?

At the next general election, many predict that PH will lose its shirt. Or if Umno pulls out because Anwar pandered to non-Malay demands, an election in October would still give PN a majority because many non-Malays will simply stay away and sulk.

The PN contenders

In these scenarios, the one who will replace Anwar would undoubtedly be from the PN leadership. Hadi Awang, Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, Muhyiddin Yassin and Hamzah Zainudin are ready and able leadership contenders.

Hadi may be too ill, so my money will be on Tuan Ibrahim. Hamzah may convince the Sabahans and Sarawakians to choose a “moderate” Malay from Bersatu as prime minister rather than from among the radical and extremist PAS leaders.

So, the PN answer to the question of who after Anwar is very easy to guess.

Now, what is not so easy to guess is if Anwar falls sick, there is no election, and the unity government remains strong. This is the 20 sen conundrum. Who will be the prime minister?

Among party leaders

In the first round of consideration, let us look at the party leaders. We have Hajiji Noor, Abang Johari Openg, Mohamad Sabu, Loke Siew Fook and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

I do not think that Hajiji and Johari will agree to be prime minister. They neither have the numbers nor experience of Malay politics in Peninsular Malaysia.

I do not think that the Malays will accept a Chinese DAP leader in Loke, even though he is the most capable among the other leaders. So, it is a toss up between Mohamad and Zahid.

With PH’s backing, it would probably be Mat Sabu.

But wait a minute, what about Fadillah Yusof and Zahid as deputy prime minister? Of the two, it would definitely be Zahid as he has the most experience in Malay politics.

Now, some of you may cry out “What about Rafizi Ramli? Isn’t he the PKR deputy president? Would he not make a good prime minister?”

Honestly, I like Rafizi but he would not last two weeks in the prime minister’s office. The civil servants and Umno people will probably run him out.

Who is more hated?

So, it’s goes back to Mohamad or Zahid as the real contenders. The rakyat, both Malays and non-Malays, may hate Anwar – but will they hate Mohamad?

I know the rakyat on both sides of the racial divide hate Zahid with a vengeance.

So, there you are – my prediction and political calculation. If Anwar retires, steps down, or becomes ill and incapacitated, all hail Mat Sabu, PMXI.

Congratulations to the rakyat. Anwar is out.