No difference, analyst says on PN’s odds in Melaka after Rembia rep joins PAS

Awang Azman Pawi says Jailani Khamis’s victory in the last state election was dependent on the mandate given to Umno by its supporters.

(FMT) – An analyst has played down the effect that Rembia assemblyman Jailani Khamis’s entry into PAS might have on Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) odds at the next state election in Melaka.

Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said Jailani’s previous victory in his constituency had hinged on the mandate given to Umno by its supporters, which saw Barisan Nasional (BN) winning 21 out of 28 state seats in the 2021 state election.

“His victory (in the next state election) is not guaranteed. Many considerations come into play, including the long period of time left until the next state election (after the current assembly’s term ends in 2026).

“Even though PN won three parliamentary seats in Melaka at GE15, sentiments can change. Melaka Umno may win again under Ab Rauf Yusoh’s leadership,” he told FMT.

Awang Azman also said that PAS’s willingness to accept Jailani showed its “double standards” on party hopping, given its earlier protest against Dewan Rakyat Speaker Johari Abdul’s refusal to vacate the six seats held by former Bersatu MPs.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia agreed, saying PN’s influence was not as strong in Melaka as it was in the east coast and northern states.

“Even though BN was threatened in Melaka in GE15, it is still strong and may be able to defend its state seats with Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) support.

“BN saw great victory in three-way contests during the Melaka election. PH may also give way and allow Umno to defend Rembia if a by-election is called,” he said.

Yesterday, PAS secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan confirmed that Jailani had joined PAS on June 10, 2023, before Melaka’s anti-hopping laws took effect the following month.

Jailani joined Umno in January 2021 after leaving PKR and defended the Rembia seat on a BN ticket in the state election that year.

However, he was dropped from the state executive council in a reshuffle after Sulaiman Ali resigned as chief minister in March 2023 and Melaka Umno chief Ab Rauf Yusoh took over the post.

He then declared that he did not support Rauf as chief minister and was spotted attending PN’s unveiling of its candidates for the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections.

Jailani was issued a show-cause letter for this and eventually suspended as an Umno member.