Can Anwar win a second term as PM?

The Pakatan Harapan strategy may yet pave the way for Sabah and Sarawak to be kingmakers again.

Murray Hunter, FMT

The probability that Anwar Ibrahim will end up as just a one-term prime minister is rising.

After all, he did not get the mandate to be PM on the strength of Pakatan Harapan (PH) alone in the 15th general election (GE15).

In fact, not a single party or coalition won enough seats to get anywhere near a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat.

In the 2022 general election, PH won 82 seats and Perikatan Nasional (PN) went home with 74.

Initially Barisan Nasional (BN), which bagged 30 seats, was prepared to throw its lot behind PN together with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).

But finally BN and GPS, whose combined take in the Dewan Rakyat made them the kingmaker, picked Anwar as Malaysia’s 10th prime minister.

It is highly likely that the next general election (GE16) will yield similar results but with peninsula-based parties winning a different number of seats than they did in GE15.

We can expect an erosion of support for Umno, the lynchpin of BN, but how far that will go remains to be seen.

Umno retains some support in the southern states of the peninsula but overall, PN is likely to end up with more seats than the PH-BN partnership.

This makes parties in Sabah and Sarawak the kingmakers, so it will be a mistake for any peninsula-based party to take them for granted.

For Anwar to return as PM, he will need PH to hold on to as many seats as possible and retain the support he has received from Sabah and Sarawak.

Given that the DAP is most likely to hold on to its 40 seats means the focus will be on PKR and Amanah to keep as many as possible of theirs.

The best scenario for Anwar is not just for PH parties to retain their seats but also to keep Umno as a partner even if it loses some seats, as well as maintain support from Sabah and Sarawak.

That will get him a second term in office.

But for PN, there are high hopes that they will wrest many seats from Umno and PKR as well as chip away some support from Amanah, which now has eight seats.

Hypothetically, if PN can take 20 seats from the PH-BN partnership, it will give them 94 seats in the Dewan.

Once again, Sabah and Sarawak will be the kingmakers and if PN can entice them to switch sides, it will get to nominate its own man for the post of prime minister.

It is obvious that both sides of the political divide in the peninsula believe they can win the mandate in GE16. However, some uncertainties remain.

The big question is will Umno implode? Its leadership issue is a big concern and the Najib Razak factor has caused some instability within the party.

Secondly, PH may try to regain non-Malay support by changing its style of government though this is unlikely to happen based on the attitude of the current leadership.

Thirdly, some black swan event, such as PAS joining the unity government or the DAP joining PN, may take place. This will change everything.

Finally, Sabah or Sarawak may insist that one of their own becomes prime minister in the next government.

In a scenario where there is more than one claim to the prime ministership, Anwar’s self-positioning as an establishment man will work in his favour.

Discretion is allowed in the selection of prime minister in accordance with Article 40(2)(a) of the Federal Constitution and this was most definitely utilised in the appointment of the last three prime ministers.

As a consequence, any prime ministerial nominee from any other party will have to take this incumbency factor into account.

Economic management may turn out to be the unity government’s Achilles heel.

Anwar’s government is actually undertaking some hard and unpopular economic reforms with subsidy rationalisation and moving towards EPF from pension schemes within the public sector.

Hard economic reforms often hurt and will not win votes as the outcome of the Sungai Bakap by-election showed.

The government has three more years to show that its economic plan will benefit the people.

Time will tell if this will become a major factor in determining the results of the next general election.

Perhaps Anwar’s best strategy is to focus on issues that people vote on.

PN sees the advantage of being a largely silent opposition.

By keeping relatively quiet, it is just letting the unity government lose votes rather than work hard to win them.

From this perspective the PN strategists are out-foxing PH.