3 takeaways from the Nenggiri by-election

The opposition can only topple the government if the voters are in a highly agitated and frustrated state.

Nehru Sathiamoorthy

Like a short rain on a hot day, the Nenggiri by election has come and gone, without leaving almost any trace.

According to the Election Commission, Barisan Nasional’s Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani had won the seat with a majority of 3,352 votes over his rival, Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidate Mohd Rizwadi Ismail from PAS. Last year, Pas had won Nenggiri with a majority of just 810 votes.

The result of the by-election finally proves that Umno and Barisan Nasional can compete and win against PN. It serves as a much-needed morale boost for Umno.

There are 3 takeaways that I see in the Nenggiri by-election. They are as follows.

1. A lethargy that favours the rule of the unity government might have set in

As compared to the Kuala Kubu Baru and Sungai Bakap elections, the Nenggiri by-election was conducted with very little publicity or fanfare. The conspicuous absence of energy might indicate that voters of both sides of the divide have simply come to accept the status quo, even if they are not fully satisfied with it. This “when life gives you lemons, make lemonade” attitude that the electorates might be showing, is favourable to the unity government, for it will pour cold water on any attempt by the opposition to topple the government. It takes more energy to topple the government than to maintain it.  The opposition can only topple the government if the voters are in a highly agitated and frustrated state. If the voters are in a resigned and lethargic state, as the Nenggiri by-election is indicating, the odds favour the unity government defending Putrajaya than the opposition conquering it.

2. Pas might finally give up on Bersatu

For quite some time, the relationship between Pas and Bersatu has been rocky. A big part of the reason why their relationship is rocky is because Pas has been frustrated by how Bersatu keeps dropping the ball, although Pas has been doing more than its part to forward Perikatan Nasional’s desire to wrest Putrajaya from PH. Bersatu has not only caused PN to lose Putrajaya after the 2022 general election, it has also lost 6 of its MP to the unity government, and made it much more difficult of PN to take Putrajaya. Despite that, Bersatu is still adamant in its desire to be the party of the Prime Minister in PN.

A sign that Pas has lost faith in Bersatu, can be seen by the fact that Pas has recently forwarded the names of a couple of its leaders as potential prime ministerial material for PN. Pas has never forwarded any of its leaders as Prime Ministerial candidates before. It has always accepted that the Prime Minister from PN will come from Bersatu. Its decision to forward the names of its own leaders as prime ministerial candidates, however, likely indicates a steep loss of faith in Bersatu’s leadership.

Pas’s action however, was likely not well received by Bersatu, and is probably one of the major reasons why Pas and Bersatu have been having a rocky relationship recently.

Another sign that Pas has lost faith in Bersatu can be seen in the selection of candidates for the Nenggiri by-election itself. The PN candidate, Mohd Rizwadi Ismail, originally belonged to Pas. He was transferred to Bersatu just two days before he was nominated as PN’s candidate for the Nenggiri by-election.

His transfer from Pas to Bersatu just so that Bersatu will have a trustworthy candidate to field for the Nenggiri by-election is another indication of just how low an esteem that Pas has on the integrity of Bersatu leaders.

That Bersatu was unable to retain Nenggiri, despite the fact that PN had just won it a year ago, and despite the fact that the Nenggiri seat is located in the Pas stronghold of Kelantan, will likely incline Pas to completely lose hope in Bersatu.

If the rumour mills are to be believed, Pas is already in talks with parties like Umno and PKR, for the purpose of forming an alliance.

The loss in Nenggiri will likely incline Pas to dump Bersatu and consider an alliance with Umno and PKR in an even more serious manner.

3. Anwar might go on the offensive

The Nenggiri by-election might be the sign that Anwar is looking for in order to move in a more decisive manner to accomplish his goals and desires. Although Anwar has been the Prime Minister since 2022, it has not been easy for him to execute his plans with strength, because his reign has not been secure. From the 6 state elections in August 2023 to the Sungai Bakap by-election, Anwar has to constantly contend with a momentum that could possibly topple his reign and install PN as the ruler in Putrajaya.

That momentum might have finally yielded in the Nenggiri by election.

Now that the momentum, often referred to as the “green wave” in local parlance, looks like it might finally be giving way, Anwar will likely have more leg room to secure his rule and accomplish his goals and desires.

Anwar had previously already turned over 6 Bersatu MPs to his side in order to secure his rule. Now, with the victory in Nenggiri under his belt, Anwar might likely be making more similar moves to secure his reign.

The canary in the coalmine that we can use to determine whether Anwar is finally feeling secure about his rule, can probably be seen in the fate of his archnemesis, Mahathir and Daim.

If Anwar feels secure about his rule, Mahathir and Daim will likely face a decisive action as payback for what they did to Anwar 25 years ago.