The consequences of a minor by-election in Kelantan
The Nenggiri by-election shows ripples occurring in both sides of politics
Murray Hunter
On Saturday August 17th the Nenggiri by-election was held in what should have been considered a minor political event. Nenggiri is one of three state seats that sit within the federal seat of Gua Musang, which was Tengku Razaleigh Tengku Mohd Hamzah’s seat for 38 years. This was once the heart of UMNO territory within Kelantan.
The Nenggiri by-election was called after the disqualification of the incumbent member Mohd Azizi Abu Naim, who is also the federal member for Gua Musang (Bersatu) pledged parliamentary support for Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government. The Kelantan Assembly speaker declared the seat vacant on June 19 2024, which required the by-election to be called.
UMNO lost the Nenggiri seat in the 2023 Kelantan state election and wanted to win it back. UMNO has been battered electorally since the 2022 general election and was desperate to achieve electoral success in the Malay heartlands to show the party still had a support base. Perikatan Nasional (PN) made up of Bersatu and PAS has wiped out much of UMNO’s support base in what has been called the ‘green wave’ by many pundits. A win by UMNO under these conditions would bring back some legitimacy.
The Nenggiri sate seat is in rural Kelantan and has only 20,259 registered voters. Malay voters constitute 84 percent, while the Orang Asli comprise 16 percent of voters. In 2023, only 12,351 or 61 percent of registered voters came out to vote. Mohd Azizi Abu Naim of PAS had an 810 vote or 6.62 percent majority.
PN nominated former PAS Gua Musang Youth head Mohd Rizwadi Ismail, running on the Bersatu ticket. This appears to have angered a number of Bersatu members, when Mohd Rizwadi was parachuted from PAS just two days before nomination day. This sidelined the Bersatu candidate. In contrast, the UMNO candidate Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani was well know to the youth in Nenggiri.
The result of Saturday’s vote was Azmawi Fikri Abdul Gani garnered 9,091 votes, defeating convincingly Mohd Rizwadi, who garnered 5,739 votes. This gave UMNO a surprising majority of 3,352 votes, returning Nenggiri as a safe seat to UMNO.
Surprising was the voter turnout of 73.88 percent, much higher than the 2023 state election. There are unconfirmed reports that gifts and money were given to the orang Asli to throw their support behind the UMNO candidate. There were also reports that PN supporters were paid not to come out and vote.
The BN have realised that large ceramah or political rallies may attract large crowds (for the food and gifts), but not necessarily result in any equivalent electoral support. Thus, UMNO resorted to an intensive house to house door knocking campaign as a means to attract voters. Umno secretary general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki was quoted as saying “Our approach for Mahkota will be to personally engage with each voter, and avoid public and mega rallies. We aim to connect with voters directly, regardless of race, by knocking on every door.” This resulted in UMNO winning the vote in 17 of the 20 polling stations.
Illusions and delusions
Prime minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Sunday that Kelantan voters have embraced the Madani government, due to the win in Nenggiri. The coalition is now being accepted by the people of Kelantan. Anwar claims the victory for UMNO was because of the “public’s growing alignment with the wave of change under the Madani government, in line with recent positive economic indicators.”
However, there may have been a lot more tactical factors that influenced the result. The absence of the DAP from the campaign, avoided any issues of UMNO cooperation with the DAP, seen as a ‘Chinese party’.
UMNO had much more resources on the ground, than they did in the 2023 state election. The specific targeting of potential vote rich pockets that would garner support around the area proved successful. This was particularly the case within Orang Asli settlements.
In contrast, issues over the PN candidate led to a Bersatu-PAS disconnect on the ground during the campaign. This was likely very costly for PN.
Primarily, local issues such as no ATM in the area, candidates, personal contact, and the old money politics influenced the result. The national issues Anwar claimed to have mattered don’t appear to have played much part in the election.
Some national consequences of the Nenggri By-election
The result of the Nenggiri by-election may yet have some punch beyond its weight.
The result has psychologically strengthened the passion and endeavor of the party. Even if the Nenggiri by-election employed some ‘smoke and mirrors’ to win using traditional money politics, Ahmand Zahid Hamidi now has bragging rights. Zahid has been somewhat sidelined in government to prevent him out-shining his boss. The results adds-value back to Zahid. In addition, murmurings of discontent by members within UMNO will be silenced for the time being.
Zahid will be more assertive again
UMNO will now be thinking of the possibility of running in the next general election under their own banner, and thus fielding candidates against Pakatan Harapan in several seats. This is what the grassroots want.
The Nenggiri by-election exposed what some suspected. There are deep cracks within the Perikatan Nasional coalition. Within the PAS leadership there is some discontent over Bersatu. Is this the beginning of the end for PN? Too early to tell. However, PAS may become much more assertive and act now more in self-interest.
What’s Hadi thinking?
Nenggiri indicates two parties, PAS and UMNO, are reconsidering their future trajectories. Nenggiri just gave us a little glimpse of this.
