The Waning of Malaysia’s Green Wave? Too Early to Call
The Green Wave in Malaysia might have subsided somewhat but it is still alive.
Syaza Shukri, Fulcrum
The result of the most recent by-election in Malaysia was unexpected for most. Barisan Nasional (BN) defeated incumbent Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the Nenggiri by-election, in contrast to the series of by-elections since 2022 in which incumbents successfully kept their seats. On top of that, BN bagged the Kelantan state seat of Nenggiri by a comfortable margin of over 3,000 votes. This ruined PN’s chances of gaining ground as they have done in other by-elections.
The seat became vacant after former Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) state representative chose to publicly back the Anwar Ibrahim government. Due to the anti-party hopping law, the Speaker of the Kelantan State Legislative Assembly declared that Mohd Azizi Abu Naim was no longer a member of Bersatu. In the 2023 Kelantan state election, Mohd Azizi Abu Naim won Nenggiri by a slim 810-vote majority.
Some are wondering if the so-called “Green Wave” of support for the Islamist and Malay-nationalist PN has faded and that Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) is no longer safe even in Kelantan, in light of BN’s unexpected victory. While it may not be as strong as it was in 2022 or 2023, the Unity Government should not be complacent in assuming that BN’s Nenggiri victory would be replicated elsewhere.
There is another data point to show the residual strength of the Green Wave. In the Penang state constituency of Sungai Bakap, another by-election was held in July. Compared to BN’s victory in Nenggiri, PN successfully defended the seat with a substantially larger majority: 4,000 in July 2024 versus a smaller 1,500-vote majority in 2023. Although the intensity of the “Green Wave” may have subsided, it has not gone away and has even been consolidated as part of Malay voters’ political identity. One of the biggest signs of this is the comfortable majority currently held by PN in Kelantan, with 42 seats out of 45. This represents an increase from the 37 seats PAS won in 2018.
Malay youth currently identify more with PN partly due to decades of Islamisation of society and government. This is further amplified when juxtaposed with BN’s corruption allegations and PH’s “liberal” agenda. However, identity politics can only go so far if another party can offer development and economic stability without compromising on Islamic principles. This is arguably what the Unity Government is doing.
