Mahkota poll a test for DAP to ensure Chinese voters back BN

An analyst says a weak turnout from Chinese voters would lead to DAP getting the blame, as in July when PAS won the Sungai Bakap by-election in Penang.

As voters in the Mahkota constituency cast their ballots today to elect their new Johor assembly representative, the pressure is on DAP to avoid being blamed if a low turnout among Chinese voters causes a poor performance for Barisan Nasional.

Rumblings of a low turnout among the Chinese, who make up 34% of the 66,318 electorate, have driven BN officials to place extra focus on the community, with BN by-election director, Johor menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi, making several impassioned pleas to Chinese voters to cast their ballots.

But political analyst Azmi Hassan told FMT that it is DAP that has more at stake when it comes to the Chinese voter turnout.

Failure to ensure they come out in droves would lead to the party being blamed, as in July, when PAS won the Sungai Bakap by-election in Penang by 4,267 votes after only 47% of Chinese voters went out to vote.

Azmi predicted BN would win in Mahkota with a greater majority than in 2022, and political observers have been led to expect an easy win for Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah of BN in his straight fight with Perikatan Nasional’s Haizan Jaafar, given the results of the previous election in 2022.

The Mahkota seat was then won by the late Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain of Umno with a 5,166-vote majority.

However, if Syed Hussien wins with the same majority as in 2022, BN could say that PH did not help in terms of votes, Azmi said.

A boycott among PH supporters would be more costly for DAP and PH, because there would be the assumption that they did not help BN.

“This would reflect on the fragility of BN and PH’s cooperation, especially in Johor, which doesn’t have a unity coalition government, unlike Putrajaya. So Mahkota is the best opportunity for PH to prove its worth in this cooperation,” said Azmi, a fellow of the National Professors Council.

Another analyst, Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, said a recent spat between DAP’s Teresa Kok and Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh over the halal certification controversy was likely to have thrown a spanner in BN’s plans to gain Chinese support through DAP.

He believed that Akmal’s tirade against Kok had caused unease among Chinese voters, and may drive some to avoid polling today, a situation PN is said to be banking on.

During the by-election campaign, poison-pen letters were placed in the mailboxes of Chinese voters, urging them to reject BN and stay away from the by-election.

But BN’s focus on the Chinese voters as kingmakers may reflect a lack of confidence in winning over Malay voters, who form the majority, comprising 58% of the electorate.

Mazlan expected some traditional Umno supporters in Mahkota to sway towards PN, out of dissatisfaction with BN’s alliance with PH. Nonetheless, he did not expect a major shift big enough to cause a BN defeat.

If so, a win in Mahkota may still come with concerns for BN over declining Malay support in Johor, the birthplace of Umno.