PN’s defeat in Mahkota can strain Bersatu-PAS ties, warns analyst

IIUM’s Lau Zhe Wei says PAS remains subordinate to PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin despite the loss and this may increase tensions between the Islamic party and Bersatu.

(FMT) – Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) defeat in the Mahkota by-election may strain the relationship between Bersatu and PAS, says a political analyst.

Lau Zhe Wei of the International Islamic University Malaysia said Haizan Jaafar’s loss in Mahkota reflected a similar voting support pattern as seen in the May 11 Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election, demonstrating Bersatu’s weakness in mixed constituencies.

“This loss is primarily a setback for Bersatu. The majority of the significant seats previously won by PN can be attributed to PAS.

“Therefore, PAS should be regarded as the ‘big brother’ within PN’s leadership,” he told FMT.

But despite this, Lau said “PAS will still be second to PN chairman (and Bersatu president) Muhyiddin Yassin”. This is likely to exacerbate tensions between Bersatu and PAS.

Last night, Barisan Nasional’s Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah emerged as the new Mahkota assemblyman after defeating Perikatan Nasional’s Haizan with a majority of 20,648 votes, four times higher than the 5,166-vote margin BN achieved in the 2022 state election.

Another analyst, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, said grassroots support for PN in Johor appears limited, as Haizan only secured 7,347 votes.

Aside from the low 53.8% voter turnout, he said it was nearly impossible for PN to wrest the Mahkota state seat from BN, as it is a traditional stronghold for Umno.

The seat has fallen out of BN’s hands only once, in the 2018 general election, when Pakatan Harapan’s Said Jonit (Amanah) defeated two-term assemblyman Jais Sarday with a majority of 1,668 votes.

“Perikatan Nasional has yet to establish a foothold in Johor,” he said, despite Muhyiddin being a former menteri besar in the state.

Azmi added that non-Malay voters still do not see PN as a viable alternative, even amid ongoing conflicts between Umno and DAP leaders.