Sabah Umno holds key to united front for state elections, analyst says

GRS would find it hard to integrate Sabah Umno into its electoral plans, but if GRS, BN and PH fail to win a majority, Warisan would become kingmaker.

(FMT) – Despite its decline in prominence, Sabah Umno remains a key factor in forming electoral alliances for the next Sabah state assembly elections, according to a political analyst.

If a united front of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional fails to achieve a majority, however, it is the opposition Warisan which will hold a kingmaker role, says Tony Paridi Bagang of Universiti Teknologi Mara.

He said a grand coalition of the three parties was imperative to achieve success at the polls, amid the backdrop of Sabah’s fragmented political environment. Whether this was achievable remained a question.

“Future coalitions, especially those involving PH and GRS, must consider Umno’s presence and seat requirements,” he wrote in an analysis today.

The ruling GRS, which has voiced its intention to work with PH, would find it hard to integrate Sabah Umno into its electoral plans without causing discontent among existing allies, he said. He expected Umno to demand winnable seats for itself, seats GRS would naturally be eyeing for itself.

BN has also stated that it would forge an alliance with PH in the state polls, but PH has yet to make a formal announcement on the matter.

“Warisan’s role as a kingmaker may be substantial” if GRS, PH, or BN fail to obtain a definitive majority at the state assembly after the elections. Shafie Apdal’s party may assume a crucial role in determining the governing coalition in Sabah,” he said.

For this reason, he said Warisan should not overestimate its influence in preparing for the state elections, as the wrong move could diminish its relevance in Sabah’s political arena.

Tony also said there could be unease among other GRS components over Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) due to the memorandum of understanding signed by the two parties, whose voter base are the Kadazandusun Murut (KDM) community.

The pact signed in April could affect seat distribution within GRS, and the situation would be exacerbated if the partnership with PH proceeds, as Upko would also demand to contest KDM-majority seats.

“If not meticulously controlled, these intersecting interests could jeopardise GRS’s internal cohesion, potentially resulting in dissatisfaction and division.

“The state elections will ultimately assess GRS chairman Hajiji Noor’s leadership, as his capacity to handle internal conflicts and traverse intricate political coalitions will dictate GRS’s ability to sustain its dominance.”